2024年全球与区域电池材料展望报告：实现交通电动化与减少资源开采并行不悖

A global and regional batterymaterial outlook EYAL LI, GEORG BIEKER, ARIJIT SEN ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors thank Aditya Ramji and Alissa Kendall from University of CaliforniaDavis, Alina Racu from Transport & Environment, Jean-Philippe Hermine from InstitutMobilités en Transition, Jessica Dunn from the Union of Concerned Scientists, and TeoLombardo from the International Energy Agency, as well as our ICCT colleagues AdityaMahalana, Amy Smorodin, Ashok Deo, Aviral Yadav, Hussein Basma, Jacob Teter, JoshMiller, Kshitij Rampotra, Palak Thakur, Peter Slowik, Pierre-Louis Ragon, Shiyue Mao,Tianlin Niu, Tomás F. Husted, and Yidan Chu for contributing to the analysis and/orreviewing this report. International Council on Clean Transportation1500 K Street NW, Suite 650Washington, DC 20005 communications@theicct.org|www.theicct.org|@TheICCT © 2024 International Council on Clean Transportation (ID 206) Funding for this work was generously provided by the ClimateWorks Foundation. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY With the goal of mitigating global warming and reducing harmful air pollution,governments around the world have adopted policies to increase the share of batteryelectric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Aligning theglobal road transportation sector with the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting globalwarming to below 2 °C can be achieved by implementing a 100% BEV sales share inmajor vehicle markets for new light-duty vehicles by 2035 and for new heavy-dutyvehicles by 2040, with all other countries completing this transition in the following5 to 10 years. Although the global road transport sector is not yet aligned with thistrajectory, many governments have set targets and are discussing other measures toincrease the ambition of vehicle electrification beyond already adopted policies. Thisacceleration of the transition to BEVs entails a rapid increase in demand for batteriesand material supply. This study projects the demand for BEV and PHEV batteries and battery materialsglobally and in five focus markets—China, the European Union, India, Indonesia, andthe United States—resulting from policies and targets that have already been adoptedor are under discussion. This is compared with announced battery cell productionand mineral supply capacities. The study covers all segments of road transport,including sales in the light-duty, heavy-duty, and two- and three-wheeler vehiclesegments as well as non-vehicular demand. Given the uncertainty surrounding thefuture development of battery technologies, this study also evaluates sensitivityscenarios of a higher-than-baseline market share of lithium iron phosphate (LFP)batteries and a large-scale application of sodium-ion batteries. Finally, this analysisexplores how the establishment of an efficient battery recycling environment, areduction in the average battery size of passenger BEVs, and a change in vehiclesales through transport demand avoidance and modal shift policies could reduce thedemand in raw materials while maintaining a rate of vehicle electrification alignedwith announced policies and targets. Our analysis supports the following conclusions: Announced battery production plant capacities significantly exceed the projectedglobal road transport and non-vehicular battery capacity demand.As displayedinFigure ES1, both the total announced cell production capacity globally, and theproportion of this capacity that is considered highly probable, exceed projecteddemand at least until 2030. The majority of current and announced cell productioncapacities are in China, corresponding to 84% of the global total in 2023 and 67%in 2030. China is thus expected to continue to be a net exporter of batteries in thecoming decade. In the European Union, announced cell production capacities couldmeet an estimated 99% of the region’s road transport and non-vehicular batterycapacity demand in 2030 if all projects are realized, while production capacities in theUnited States correspond to 130% of domestic demand in 2030. When consideringonly facilities that are either already operational and those under construction thatare considered highly probable to reach the announced output, capacities in theUnited States correspond to 103% of domestic demand in 2030, while those in theEuropean Union cover just 72% of road transport and non-vehicular battery capacitydemand, highlighting the importance of EU Member States supporting the realizationof announced investments. In India and Indonesia, the capacities of the announced cellproduction plants are comparatively more limited, corresponding to a projected 49%and 44%, respectively, of domestic vehicular battery demand in 2030. The scaling-up of battery material supply is projected to catch up with growing demand.Assuming a continuous increase in the average battery size of light-dutyvehicles (LDVs) and a baseline scenario for the development of the market shares ofLFP batteries, we estimate that mining capacities in 20