玉米年报：熊市末端

1   -2- -3- 15.65% 15.54% 14.46% 13.74% 12.59%12.71% 11.76%11.44% 9.92% 8.64% 9.16% 7.89%7.39% 9.21% 8.33% 1128 989 173117372293214022211919 17601738 821 1232 123513771360 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 18.00% 16.00% 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6000 4000 2000 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 00.00% TotalsupplyTotaluseEndingstocksStocksToUse -4- Year2010/112011/122012/132013/142014/152015/162016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/232023/242024/25PlantedHarvestedYield 88.281.4 152.8 91.9 84 147.2 97.287.4 123.4 95.487.5 158.1 90.683.1 171 8880.8 168.4 9486.7 174.6 90.282.7 176.6 88.981.3 176.4 89.781.3 167.5 90.782.3 171.4 93.385.3 176.7 88.278.7 173.4 94.686.5 177.3 90.782.7 183.1 Beginningstocks 1708 1128 989 821 1232 1731 1737 2293 2140 2221 1919 1235 1377 1360 1760 Production 12447 12360 10780 13829 14216 13602 15148 14609 14340 13620 14111 15074 13651 15341 15143 Imports 28 29 162 36 32 67 57 36 28 42 24 24 39 28 25 Totalsupply 14182 13516 11932 14686 15479 15401 16942 16939 16509 15883 16055 16333 15066 16729 16928 FeedandResidualFood,Seed&Industrial Ethanol&by-productsDomestic,Total ExportsTotaluse 479364285021 11220 1835 13055 454564395011 10985 1543 12527 433360464648 10379 731 11111 5036 5324 5120 5472 5304 5430 5899 5602 5721 5486 5807 5825 6501 6560 6646 6883 7056 6793 6286 6466 6764 6558 6869 6890 5134 5200 5224 5432 5605 5378 4857 5028 5326 5176 5478 5500 11537 11883 11766 12356 12360 12223 12185 12068 12484 12045 12676 12715 1917 1864 1898 2293 2438 2065 1778 2753 2471 1661 2292 2475 13454 13748 13664 14649 14799 14288 13963 14821 14956 13706 14969 15190 Endingstocks 1128 989 821 1232 1731 1737 2293 2140 2221 1919 1235 1377 1360 1760 1738 StocksToUse 8.6% 7.9% 7.4% 9.2% 12.6% 12.7% 15.7% 14.5% 15.5% 13.7% 8.3% 9.21% 9.92% 11.76% 11.44% Corn-Brazil (Dec) (Dec) Year 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023 2023/2024 2024/205 AreaHarvested(1000HA) 15,200 15,800 15,800 15,750 16,000 17,600 16,600 17,500 18,500 19,900 21,800 22,400 21,500 22,300 Yield(MT/HA) 4.80 5.16 5.06 5.40 4.19 5.60 4.94 5.77 5.51 4.37 5.32 6.12 5.67 5.70 BeginningStocks(1000MT) 6,278 4,212 9,150 13,972 7,842 6,769 14,019 9,315 5,811 6,328 4,653 3,971 10,041 7,841 Production(1000MT) 73,000 81,500 80,000 85,000 67,000 98,500 82,000 101,000 102,000 87,000 116,000 137,000 122,000 127,000 MYImports(1000MT) 771 886 789 331 3,423 854 915 1,659 1,656 2,848 2,596 1,333 1,300 1,500 TotalSupply(1000MT) 80,049 86,598 89,939 99,303 78,265 106,123 96,934 111,974 109,467 96,176 123,249 142,304 133,341 136,341 FeedandResidual(1000MT) 44,000 44,500 46,000 48,000 49,000 51,000 54,000 57,000 58,500 59,000 59,000 61,500 63,500 64,000 FSIConsumption(1000MT) 7,500 8,000 9,000 9,000 8,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 11,500 12,000 16,500 20,500 21,500 TotalDom.Consumption(1000MT) 51,500 52,500 55,000 57,000 57,500 60,500 63,500 66,500 68,000 70,500 71,000 78,000 84,000 85,500 MYExports(1000MT) 24,337 24,948 20,967 34,461 13,996 31,604 24,119 39,663 35,139 21,023 48,278 54,263 41,500 48,000 EndingStocks(1000MT) 4,212 9,150 13,972 7,842 6,769 14,019 9,315 5,811 6,328 4,653 3,971 10,041 7,841 2,841 StocksToUse 5.6% 11.8% 18.4% 8.6% 9.5% 15.2% 10.6% 5.5% 6.1% 5.1% 3.3% 7.6% 6.2% 2.1% -5- Corn-Argentina (Dec) (Dec) Year 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023 2023/2024 2024/205 AreaHarvested(1000HA) 3,600 4,308 4,330 4,030 4,245 5,244 6,210 6,680 6,690 6,940 7,440 7,200 7,000 6,400 Yield(MT/HA) 5.83 7.31 7.51 8.07 8.13 8.01 6.01 8.31 8.15 7.93 6.99 5.14 7.14 7.97 BeginningStocks(1000MT) 4,038 896 2,408 3,508 3,548 2,698 3,923 2,857 4,517 5,869 3,132 4,748 2,324 4,089 Production(1000MT) 21,000 31,500 32,500 32,500 34,500 42,000 37,300 55,500 54,500 55,000 52,000 37,000 50,000 51,000 MYImports(1000MT) 7 3 2 3 3 11 7 4 4 5 8 16 15 5 TotalSupply(1000MT) 25,045 32,399 34,910 36,011 38,051 44,709 41,230 58,361 59,021 60,874 55,140 41,764 52,339 55,094 FeedandResidual(1000MT) 4,800 8,500 11,000 10,000 10,200 11,000 12,000 12,500 12,800 12,700 11,500 10,000 11,000 12,000 FSIConsumption(1000MT) 2,200 2,800 3,300 3,500 3,500 3,800 3,900 4,100 4,100 4,100 4,200 4,200 4,250 4,300 TotalDom.Consumption(1000MT) 7,000 11,300 14,300 13,500 13,700 14,800 15,900 16,600 16,900 16,800 15,700 14,200 15,250 16,300 MYExports(1000MT) 17,149 18,691 17,102 18,963 21,653 25,986 22,473 37,244 36,252 40,942 34,692 25,240 33,000 36,000 EndingStocks(1000MT) 896 2,408 3,508 3,548 2,698 3,923 2,857 4,517 5,869 3,132 4,748 2,324 4,089 2,794 StocksToUse 3.7% 8.0% 11.2% 10.9% 7.6% 9.6% 7.4% 8.4% 11.0% 5.4% 9.4% 5.9% 8.5% 5.3% -6- Corn-China (Dec) (Dec) Year 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023 2023/2024 2024/205 AreaHarvested(1000HA) 36,767 39,109 41,299 42,997 44,968 44,178 42,399 42,130 41,280 41,264 43,324 43,070 44,218 44,700 Yield(