Coal 2024

Analysis and forecast to 2027 INTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCY The IEA examines the fullspectrumof energy issuesincluding oil, gas andcoal supply anddemand, renewableenergy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand sidemanagement and muchmore. Through its work,the IEA advocatespolicies that will enhancethe reliability,affordability andsustainability of energyin its32Member countries,13Association countriesand beyond. IEAMembercountries: IEAAssociationcountries: AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TürkiyeUnited KingdomUnited States ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraine This publication and any mapincluded herein are withoutprejudice to the status of orsovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation ofinternational frontiers andboundaries and to the nameof any territory, city or area. The EuropeanCommission alsoparticipates in thework of the IEA Source: IEA.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.org Abstract Coal is often considered a fuel of the past, but global consumption of it has doubledin the past three decades. At the height of lockdowns related to the Covid-19pandemic in 2020, demand declined significantly. Yet the rebound from those lows,underpinned by high gas prices in the aftermath of Russia’s full-scale invasion ofUkraine, has resulted in record global coal production, consumption, trade and coal-fired power generation in recent years. Now, questions about the forecast loom. That period also saw a formidableexpansion of renewable power capacity, which is now threatening coal’s century-long supremacy in electricity generation. At the same time, accelerating demand forelectricity around the world could give coal another boost. Many competing factors are at play. How quickly will coal use decline in developedeconomies as they become more electrified? When will coal use peak in China, theworld’s largest producer and consumer? How will India fuel its economic growth?When will coal be replaced in the industrial sector? And what might different regionaltrajectories mean on a global level? Using the latest data,Coal 2024presents recent trends and a three-year forecast forcoal demand, supply and trade by grade and by region. It is essential reading foranyone interested in understanding global energy. Acknowledgements, contributorsand credits This International Energy Agency (IEA) publication has been prepared by the Gas,Coal and Power Markets Division (GCP), headed by Dennis Hesseling, whoprovided useful suggestions and comments throughout the process. KeisukeSadamori, Director of Energy Markets and Security, provided essential guidance.Carlos Fernández Alvarez led and co-ordinated the analysis. Hendrik Diers, JulianKeutz and Carlos Fernández Alvarez were the authors of the report. Other IEA colleagues provided important contributions, including Heymi Bahar,Stephanie Bouckaert, Eren Çam, Marc Casanovas, Joel Couse, Laura Cozzi,Carole Etienne, Mathilde Fajardy, Víctor García Tapia, Tim Gould, Timur Gül,Ciarán Healy, Milosz Karpinski, Martin Küppers, Yihong Liu, Akos Losz, GergelyMolnár, Arnau Rísquez Martín and Frederick Ritter. Timely and comprehensive data from the Energy Data Centre were fundamentalto the report. Taylor Morrison and Nicola Dragui provided invaluable supportduring the process. Thanks also go to the IEA China desk, particularly RebeccaMcKimm, Yang Biqing and Chen Jiayi for their research on China. The IEA Communication and Digital Office (CDO) provided production and launchsupport. Particular thanks go to Jethro Mullen, acting Head of CDO, and his team:Astrid Dummond, Isabelle Nonain-Semelin and Liv Gaunt. Justin French-Brooksedited the report. Our gratitude goes to the Institute of Energy Economics at the University ofCologne (EWI) for sharing their extensive coal expertise and modelling insights. CRU provided invaluable data and information for this report. Thanks to GlenKurokawa for his support and suggestions. Our gratitude goes to the IEA Coal Industry Advisory Board (CIAB) for its support. Special thanks go to the international experts who provided input during theprocessand/or reviewed the draft of the report.They include:Kevin Ball(Whitehaven Coal), Steven Brown (Minerals Council of Australia), Mick Buffier(Glencore), Michael Caravaggio (EPRI), Alexandre Claude (Dry Bulk), Nikki Fisher(Thungela Resources), Peter Morris (Minerals Council of Australia), Dmitry Popov(Oldendorff), Brian Ricketts (Euracoal), Hans Wilhelm Schiffer (RWE), Paul Simons(Yale University), Rodolfo Shimatsu (Telf) and Akira Yabumoto (J-POWER). Theindividuals and organisations that contributed to this report are notresponsible for any opinion or judgement it contains. Any error or omission is thesole re