Coal Analysis and Forecast to 2025
Executive Summary
Global Coal Demand
- 2022 Outlook: Global coal demand is set to rise slightly by 1.2% in 2022, reaching an all-time high of 8 billion tonnes.
- Key Drivers: The global energy crisis has led to a significant shift towards coal, particularly in Europe and China, where coal use surged due to higher natural gas prices and increased power demand.
Regional Trends
- Europe: Europe experienced a temporary increase in coal power generation due to gas shortages and insufficient wind and solar power. However, efforts to improve energy efficiency and expand renewables are expected to reduce coal usage starting in 2024.
- China: Despite prolonged and stringent COVID-19 lockdowns, China's coal demand saw a surge in electricity generation, especially during summer heatwaves. Renewable power generation is expected to increase significantly, offsetting coal demand growth.
- India: India's coal consumption has doubled since 2007, making it a key driver of global coal demand growth.
Forecast to 2025
- Plateauing Trend: Global coal demand is projected to plateau around 8 billion tonnes through 2025.
- China's Impact: China's coal consumption is expected to grow at an average of 0.7% per year until 2025, driven by renewable power generation. India's coal consumption is forecast to continue growing, while the US and Europe are expected to see a decline in coal usage.
Renewable Power Generation
- Future Outlook: New renewable generation is expected to cover nearly 90% of additional electricity demand through 2025, with modest increases in nuclear power generation and high gas prices playing a role.
Overall, the global coal market remains volatile, influenced by energy crises, geopolitical tensions, and shifting energy policies.
