探索未知水域：央行的机遇和风险（英）

Navigating Uncharted Waters: Opportunities and Risks for Central Banks

Overview of the Conference

The 23rd BIS Annual Conference, held in Basel, Switzerland on June 28, 2024, brought together central bank governors, leading academics, and former public officials to discuss the theme "Navigating uncharted waters: opportunities and risks for central banks." The conference featured sessions on various topics including artificial intelligence, sustainable investment, geopolitics, and monetary policy.

Key Points from Michele Bullock's Remarks

Michele Bullock, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), highlighted several key points:

1. Inflation Targeting Framework: Despite significant challenges, the RBA’s flexible inflation targeting framework has performed well. Inflation has averaged between 2% and 3%, and the variability of output and unemployment has been lower compared to earlier decades. The recent review of the RBA framework reaffirmed its effectiveness.

2. Unconventional Monetary Policy Tools: The RBA used a range of unconventional tools during the COVID-19 pandemic, including a yield target for three-year government bonds, a three-year term funding facility for banks, quantitative easing (QE), and forward guidance. While these measures were effective in supporting the economy, they also presented challenges. For instance, forward guidance became time-based rather than state-based, leading to reputational damage. The yield target had limited flexibility and resulted in a disorderly exit. The bond purchase program offered more flexibility but was less impactful due to the nature of mortgage financing in Australia. Both the Term Funding Facility and QE exposed the RBA to interest rate risk, resulting in significant losses.

3. Coordination with Other Policy Arms: The RBA emphasized the importance of better coordination with macroprudential and fiscal policies. Pre-pandemic, high household debt and rapid increases in house prices posed challenges. To address this, the RBA and the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) began to use macroprudential tools. The review recommended formalizing the relationship between the RBA and APRA to enhance policy coordination, aiming to provide monetary policy with greater flexibility while mitigating potential unintended consequences for financial stability.

Summary

Central banks, particularly the RBA, have navigated a complex landscape of economic challenges using a flexible inflation targeting framework. They have successfully managed unconventional monetary policy tools but encountered challenges in their implementation. Coordination with other policy arms, such as macroprudential and fiscal policies, is crucial for effective policy-making, and efforts are underway to improve these relationships.