贸易结构调整：劳动力市场和福利效应评估（英）

Trade Restructuring: Assessing Labor Market and Welfare Effects

Introduction

Global production and manufacturing have become increasingly interconnected and fragmented, with enterprises organizing production processes and business operations across different geographical and functional dimensions within global value chains (GVCs). Between the 1990s and the 2008 "Great Recession," offshoring became prevalent, involving the relocation of low-skilled production to developing countries. This trend reversed after the 2008 recession, leading to "reshoring" as advanced economies sought to bring back certain manufacturing and activities.

Drivers of Trade Restructuring

Key drivers of trade restructuring include:

• Lower Cost Advanced Technologies: Making reshoring more feasible.
• Rising Offshore Labor Costs: Particularly in countries like China.
• Recent Shocks: Such as the COVID-19 pandemic, trade disputes, and geopolitical tensions.

Trade Restructuring in the United States and Europe

• US Imports: Imports from China declined significantly, while imports from Mexico, Vietnam, and Bangladesh increased.
• EU Markets: The Russian Federation experienced significant trade contraction, while the Republic of Korea, India, Brazil, Norway, and China saw growth.
• Tariff Impact: A 1% increase in tariffs results in a 7.25% decrease in total trade for the US and a 4.67% decrease for the EU.

Characteristics of Benefiting Countries

Three key factors influence whether countries gain or lose market shares:

1. Labor Productivity or Unit Labor Cost
2. Logistics Capability: Quality of trade and transport infrastructure, logistics services, and clearance efficiency.
3. Technological Readiness: Availability of credit and skills, ICT infrastructure, capabilities in high-tech manufacturing and digital service delivery, and R&D.

Countries with higher competitiveness, enhanced logistics capability, and greater technological readiness are better positioned to gain market shares and become new production hubs.

Welfare Impacts

• Automation: Increased reshoring but did not create jobs or raise wages for low-skilled workers.
• Job Displacement: Reduced export demand and led to job and income losses in offshoring countries.
• Protectionist Measures: Decreased welfare, such as increased consumer costs and reduced product variety in the US due to U.S.-China trade tensions.

Future Directions

• Long-Run Effects: More evidence is needed on the long-term impacts of trade restructuring.
• Policy Dialogue: Focus on preventing trade fragmentation and mitigating adverse welfare effects.

Conclusion

Trade restructuring is expected to increase due to technological advancements and socio-political developments. While it can promote job creation and income gains in new host countries, it may cause production and job losses in offshoring countries. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for policymakers and businesses to navigate the changing global economic landscape.