2024年10月亚太地区经济展望分析报告

Resilient Growth but Higher Risks in Asia and the Pacific

Overview

• Growth Forecast: The region is expected to contribute approximately 60% to global growth in 2024.
• Growth Projections:
  • 2024: Projected growth of 4.6%, up from 4.5% in April.
  • 2025: Projected growth of 4.4%, up from 4.3% in April.

Recent Developments

• Growth in First Half of 2024: Slightly exceeded April's forecast.
• Exports: Improved across the board, driven by strong demand for technology products.
• Domestic Demand:
  • Emerging Asia: Consumption and investment grew at a robust pace.
  • Advanced Asia: Consumption weakened due to past monetary tightening.
  • China: Property market adjustments continued to dampen private demand.

Risks

• Geopolitical Tensions: Increased uncertainty.
• Global Demand: Uncertainty about its strength.
• Financial Volatility: Potential for financial instability.

Macroeconomic Policies

• Monetary Conditions: More accommodative monetary policies expected to support economic activity.
• Inflation: Declining, particularly in goods prices.
• Target Achievement: Most emerging Asian economies returned to target inflation levels by the end of 2023.

Key Data Points

• Growth Forecast Adjustments:

  • 2024: 4.6% (up from 4.5%).
  • 2025: 4.4% (up from 4.3%).

• Inflation Trends:

  • Goods Prices: Declining inflation in most regions.
  • Service Sector: Shift from goods to services post-COVID-19.

• Monetary Policy:

  • Accommodation: More accommodative monetary conditions expected to support activity.

Conclusion

• Demographic Impact: Demographic changes acting as a brake on economic activity.
• Structural Shifts: Positive trend towards high-productivity sectors like tradable services.

This summary captures the key aspects of the report, focusing on growth projections, recent developments, risks, and macroeconomic policies in Asia and the Pacific.