2022年亚太地区经济展望报告

INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND REGIONALECONOMICOUTLOOK ASIAANDPACIFIC SailingintoHeadwinds 2022 OCT WorldEconomicandFinancialSurveys RegionalEconomicOutlook AsiaandPacific SailingintoHeadwinds OCT 22 INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND ©2022InternationalMonetaryFund Cataloging-in-PublicationData Names:InternationalMonetaryFund,publisher. Title:Regionaleconomicoutlook.AsiaandPacific:sailingintoheadwinds. Othertitles:AsiaandPacific:sailingintoheadwinds.|Sailingintoheadwinds.|Worldeconomicandfinancialsurveys. Description:Washington,DC:InternationalMonetaryFund,2022.|Worldeconomicandfinancialsurveys.|Oct.22.|Includesbibliographicalreferences. Identifiers:9798400220517(paper) 9798400221200(ePub) 9798400221224(WebPDF) Subjects:LCSH:Economicforecasting—Asia.|Economicforecasting—PacificArea.|Asia—Economicconditions.|PacificArea—Economicconditions.|Economicdevelopment—Asia.|Economicdevelopment—PacificArea. Classification:LCCHC412.R4452022 TheRegionalEconomicOutlook:AsiaandPacificispublishedannuallyinthefalltoreviewdevelopmentsintheAsia-Pacificregion.BothprojectionsandpolicyconsiderationsarethoseoftheIMFstaffanddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFManagement. Pleasesendordersto: InternationalMonetaryFund,PublicationServices70019thSt.N.W.,Washington,D.C.20431,U.S.A.Tel.:(202)623-7430Telefax:(202)623-7201 E-mail:publications@imf.orgInternet:www.imf.org Contents Acknowledgmentsvii Definitionsix ExecutiveSummaryxi 1.TheOutlookforAsiaandPacific:SailingintoHeadwinds1 RecentDevelopments1 TheReturnofInflation2 GlobalandRegionalHeadwindstoGrowth4 TheOutlookforAsiaandPacific8 ProspectsfortheMediumTerm—GreaterScarringfromthePandemic10 RiskstotheOutlookAretotheDownside11 BeyondtheConjuncturalDownsideRisks12 Policies12 Annex1.EstimatedDriversofCoreInflation28 References31 2.Medium-TermOutputLossesafterCOVID-19inAsia:TheRoleofCorporateDebt andDigitalization33 ExpectedOutputLossesaftertheCOVID-19Crisis:MagnitudesandDeterminants33 LowerInvestmentinAsia:TheRoleofCorporateDebtinAmplifyingOutputLosses35 DeclineinLaborInputsinAsia:ImplicationsfortheLongTerm38 PoliciestoMitigateScarring39 Conclusion41 References43 3.AsiaandtheGrowingRiskofGeoeconomicFragmentation45 TradeFragmentation:WhatIsatStakeandEarlySigns45 TheEffectofTradePolicyUncertainty47 Long-TermLossesfromaWorldDividedintoTradingBlocs49 WillFinancialFragmentationAddFurtherDownsideRisks?52 Conclusion52 References54 REGIONALECONOMICOUTLOOK:ASIAANDPACIFIC Boxes Box1.1.GrowthSpilloverstotheRestoftheWorldfromaSlowdowninChina22 Box1.2.HowAreInflationExpectationsMeasuredinAsia?24 Box1.3.TheEffectofFoodandEnergyPriceInflationonHouseholdsinAsia25 Figures Figure1.1.REO14:GrowthSurprises2 Figure1.2.TradeVolumes2 Figure1.3.ManufacturingandServicesPMI2 Figure1.4.HeadlineInflation3 Figure1.5.ContributionstoHeadlineInflation3 Figure1.6.DriversofCoreInflation4 Figure1.7.SovereignBorrowingCosts5 Figure1.8.JPMAsiaCreditIndexCorporateZ-Spreads5 Figure1.9.ExchangeRateandCommodityTermsofTrade6 Figure1.10.ContributionstoNominalEffectiveExchangeRateChangesin20226 Figure1.11.CumulativePortfolioFlowsfromEMAsiaAkintoPreviousEpisodesofStress6 Figure1.12.RevisionstoChina’sGrowth7 Figure1.13.China:RealEstateIndicators8 Figure1.14.ProjectedInflationRevisedUpAgain10 Figure1.15.Medium-TermGDPLoss:DifferenceinCumulativeGrowthRates(2020–25)10 Figure1.16.ImpactofaGlobalDownsideScenarioonGrowthinAsiaandPacific12 Figure1.17.FiscalandMonetaryPolicyinAsia13 Figure1.18.CoreInflationandOutputGaps13 Figure1.19.ProfessionalForecastsofInflationinAsia14 Figure1.20.EstimatedPersistenceofCoreInflation14 Figure1.21.ResponseofAsianCoreInflationtoGlobalShocks15 Figure1.22.ImpactofaGlobalInflationExpectationsShockScenarioonAsia15 Figure1.23.Asia:CyclicallyAdjustedPrimaryBalance16 Figure1.24.Asia:GeneralGovernmentDebt17 Figure1.25.ShareofNFCDebtinVulnerableFirms19 Figure1.26.Credit-to-GDPGap19 Figure1.27.TotalCryptoAssetVolume20 Figure2.1.OutputLossesinAsia34 Figure2.2.CorporateDebtandEducationLossesduringCOVID-19:ImplicationsforAsia36 Figure2.3.DigitalizationinAsia40 Figure2.4.DigitalizationandResilience42 Figure3.1.TradeFragmentation:WhatIsatStakeandEarlySigns46 ivInternationalMonetaryFund|October2022 CONTENTS Figure3.2.ImpactofTradePolicyUncertainty48 Figure3.3.Long-TermLossesfromFragmentingWorldTradealongtheLinesofthe UNVoteonUkraine50 Figure3.4.FinancialFragmentation:WhatIsatStakeandEarlySigns51 Tables Table1.1.Asia:RealGDPGrowth21 AnnexTable1.1.SurveysofInflationExpectations29 Acknowledgments ThisRegionalEconomicOutlookwaspreparedbyateamledbyShanakaJ.PeirisandDavideFurceri,undertheoveralldirectionofKrishnaSrinivasanandSanjayaPanth.ThereportisbasedondataavailableasofOctober3,2022.Chapter1waspreparedbyYanCarrière-Swallow(lead)andYizhiXu,withcontributionsfromChrisRedl(Box1.1),DanielJiménez(Box1.2),andAlessiaDeStefani,GiacomoMagistretti,AnhThi NgocNguyen,andModesteSome(Box1.3).Chapter2waspreparedbyAlexanderCopestake,JuliaEstefania-Flores,PabloGonzalezDominguez,DanielJiménez,SiddharthKothari(co-lead),andNourTaw