俄罗斯经济概览（2019年第二季度版）

Russia Economy in a Snapshot, Q2 2019

Economic Outlook

• Real GDP Growth: Slowed down to 0.63% year-over-year (y/y) in the first quarter of 2019, marking a record low since Q4 2017.
• Inflation: Closed at 4.66% in June 2019, nearing the Central Bank's target of 4%. Further policy rate cuts expected to put upward pressure on prices.
• Unemployment: Reached a post-Soviet era low of 4.6% in March and has been sustained at this level since then.
• Exports: Depressed by the contamination of the Druzhba oil pipeline and the economic slowdown of major trading partners. Expected to stabilize in the second half of 2019.

Industrial Performance

• Industrial Production: Grew by 3.53% y/y in June, driven mainly by oil and gas (2.3% y/y) and basic metals (14.6% y/y).
• Oil and Gas: Output rose by 2.3% y/y in June 2019.
• Refined Petroleum Products: Contracted by 4.8% y/y in Q2 2019.
• Basic Metals: Increased by 14.6% y/y in May 2019.

Consumer Sentiment

• Retail Trade: Fluctuated, decreasing month-over-month (m/m) in February but increasing year-over-year (y/y) in June 2019.
• Non-Food Products: Accounted for 51.94% of total retail trade in June 2019, slightly down from 52.44% in June 2018.
• Food Items: Highest growth rates were seen in vegetables (18.2% y/y), sugar (18% y/y), and eggs (15.7% y/y).

Key Highlights

• Budget Surplus: The Russian federal government maintained a budget surplus through the first half of 2019, scoring RUB 277.8 billion in Q2 2019.
• Currency: The rouble appreciated against major currencies, gaining 5.88% against the US dollar and 8.15% against the euro.
• Trade Balance: Exports contracted by 13.5% y/y in May due to falling oil prices, pipeline contamination, and a strengthening rouble.
• Imports: Decreased by 7.39% y/y in the first half of 2019, primarily due to a 10% decrease in machine and equipment imports.

Forecasts

• GDP Growth: Fitch Ratings projects a 1.2% GDP growth for 2019, while Focus Economics forecasts 1.4% y/y.
• Inflation: Projected to end 2019 at 4.34%.

Policy and Trends

• Monetary Policy: The Central Bank cut the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 7.5% in June, with further loosening expected.
• Real Wages: Increased by 2.3% y/y in June, with nominal wages rising by 7.1%.
• Consumer Confidence: Declined to -14.6% in February 2019 but showed slight improvement to -16.5% in March.

Overall, the Russian economy experienced a significant deceleration in the first quarter of 2019, driven by contraction in private consumption and investment, and depressed exports. However, the economy is expected to rebound in the coming months with the loosening of monetary policy and anticipated rouble depreciation boosting exports.