国际货币基金组织支持的低收入国家项目：脆弱国家与非脆弱国家（英）2024

IMF-Supported Programs in Low-Income Countries: Fragile versus Non-Fragile States

Introduction

This paper examines the macroeconomic frameworks of IMF-supported programs with low-income countries (LICs), specifically focusing on how macroeconomic objectives and their achievement differ between programs with fragile and conflicted-affected states (FCS) and non-FCS. The IMF classifies approximately one-fifth of its 191 member countries as FCS, with most of these being LICs. About half of all LICs are FCS, highlighting the significant overlap between these two categories.

Main Findings

1. Similar Program Targets: Both FCS and non-FCS programs have similar macroeconomic targets.
2. Optimism: There is optimism across all dimensions except inflation.
3. No Significant Correlation: There is no significant correlation between targets and outcomes.
4. Predictive Power: Country-independent targets (mean or median outcomes of other programs) outperform program projections as predictors of actual outcomes.
5. Challenges in Setting Targets: These findings underscore the challenges in setting realistic, country and program-specific targets in IMF-supported programs with low-income countries.

Methodology and Data

• Research Questions: The study focuses on comparing macroeconomic objectives and achievements between FCS and non-FCS programs.
• Methodology: The analysis uses quantitative methods to examine absolute and relative ambition, optimism, and correlations between targets and outcomes.
• Data Sources: The data covers programs from 2009 to 2022 and includes information on various macroeconomic variables.

Key Data Points

1. Absolute Ambition: The paper analyzes how targets are set in terms of absolute values.
2. Relative Ambition: It also looks at how targets are set relative to baseline conditions.
3. Optimism: The level of optimism in achieving targets across different dimensions.
4. Correlations: The relationship between targets and actual outcomes.

Caveats

• GDP Rebenchmarking: Potential issues with GDP rebenchmarking.
• Non-linear Relationship: The non-linear relationship between initial conditions and targets.
• Repeat Programs: Differences in repeat programs compared to first-time programs.

Conclusion

The study highlights the challenges in setting realistic and tailored targets for IMF-supported programs in low-income countries, especially in fragile and conflicted-affected states. The findings suggest that more flexible and adaptive approaches may be needed to better align targets with actual outcomes.

References

• [List of references]

Appendices

• Appendix A: Initial conditions versus targets.
• Appendix B: Use of medians instead of means.
• Appendix C: Exclusion of COVID-affected programs.
• Appendix D: Inclusion of negative adjustments.
• Appendix E: Comparison of initial vs. repeat programs.
• Appendix F: Explanation of growth optimism.
• Appendix G: GDP re-benchmarking.
• Appendix H: Country classifications.

Figures

• Figure 1: Histogram of program approval dates.
• Figure 2: Histogram of in-sample program durations.
• Figure 3: Initial conditions versus targeted increases.
• Figure 4: Targets versus outcomes.
• Figure 5: Repeat customers: time between program approvals.

Tables

• Table 1: List of variables.
• Table 2: Absolute ambitiousness.
• Table 3: Relative ambitiousness.
• Table 4: Optimism.
• Table 5: Optimism—on-track only.
• Table 6: Correlations.
• Table 7: Correlations—on-track only.