跨大西洋线索：美国和欧盟如何影响彼此的气候政策（英）

Transatlantic Cues: How the United States and European Union Influence Each Other’s Climate Policies

Introduction

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 marked a significant shift in U.S. climate policy, reversing decades of lackluster progress. In contrast, the European Union has adopted a new policy package that expands the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and introduces a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). The U.S. emphasis on industrial policy and the EU's focus on integrating climate and trade policies through CBAM have sparked mutual interest and consideration of similar measures.

US Climate Policy and the Inflation Reduction Act

The IRA includes extensive subsidies and industrial policy measures, diverging from the EU's preference for carbon pricing. The act aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and stimulate clean energy industries through direct financial incentives and regulations.

Europe Responds: The Net-Zero Industry Act

In response to the IRA, the European Union has proposed the Net-Zero Industry Act, which includes significant regulatory and subsidy policies to support the transition to a low-carbon economy. Swedish businesses have shown a strong response to the IRA, indicating a growing alignment between the two regions.

Competitiveness in Europe: Carbon Border Adjustments

The EU's CBAM is designed to address potential competitiveness issues by taxing carbon-intensive imports. This policy aims to ensure that European industries remain competitive while promoting global emissions reductions.

The United States' Burgeoning Interest in Climate and Trade

The U.S. has shown increasing interest in leveraging climate policies to enhance trade competitiveness. The Biden administration's Climate and Trade Task Force underscores the importance of integrating climate and trade policies.

Looking Ahead: Transatlantic Climate Policy toward 2030 and Beyond

The evolution of climate policy in both regions will be shaped by political priorities and the geopolitical landscape. The resurgence of industrial policy and the integration of climate and trade policies are expected to continue.

What Political Priorities Might Shape Climate Policy?

Future climate policies will be influenced by a range of factors, including economic considerations, technological advancements, and international cooperation. The role of industrial policy and the impact on trade partners will play a crucial role.

Why Climate Policy Will Be Different in the 2030s than Today

Climate policy in the 2030s is likely to be more integrated and multifaceted, incorporating both regulatory and market-based approaches. The emphasis on industrial policy and the focus on trade will shape the policy landscape.

What Does This Mean for Near-Term Climate Policy in the US and EU?

In the short term, the U.S. is likely to expand its industrial policy efforts, while the EU will continue to refine its CBAM and other regulatory measures. Sweden, as a small open economy with stringent climate targets, will be particularly affected by these policies.

Conclusion and Outlook

The cross-fertilization of climate policies between the U.S. and EU highlights the evolving nature of climate policy. Industrial policy is likely to remain a key component, and the integration of climate and trade policies will continue to gain traction. As the impact of climate change becomes more pronounced, both regions will need to adapt their policies to address emerging challenges.