海上风电考察：美国大西洋和墨西哥湾沿岸海上风电场的影响、效益和成本（英）

Offshore Wind Power Examined: Effects, Benefits, and Costs of Offshore Wind Farms along the US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts

Executive Summary

Electricity generated from offshore wind is seen as crucial for reducing energy-related emissions due to its ability to serve coastal areas and complement other non-emitting sources. However, the extent to which it replaces emitting and other non-emitting generation, improves public health, and affects the total cost of electricity supply remains uncertain. This study evaluates the impacts of 32 planned or proposed offshore wind farms along the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts, which together would generate approximately 2.5% of US and Canadian electricity.

The study uses the Engineering, Economic, and Environmental Electricity Simulation Tool (E4ST) to project and evaluate several effects on the year 2035:

• Generation: Offshore wind farms are estimated to reduce natural gas and coal-fueled generation significantly, leading to substantial emissions reductions.
• Health: The reduction in emissions is expected to prevent approximately 520 premature deaths annually from airborne particulate matter and ground-level ozone, with a disproportionate impact on Black, Hispanic, and low-income Americans, particularly in the New York City area.
• Climate Change: The farms are projected to reduce worldwide deaths from climate change by 1,600 per year.
• Costs: While the overall non-environmental costs of the electricity supply increase, customer electricity and natural gas bills decrease. The benefit-to-cost ratio is estimated to be 14 to 1.
• Other Impacts: The models also consider the effects on energy storage and the impact on subsequent offshore wind developments.

Key Findings

• Benefit-to-Cost Ratio: The estimated benefit-to-cost ratio of the offshore wind farms is 14 to 1.
• Reduction in Emissions: The offshore wind farms are projected to cause large reductions in emissions, particularly from natural gas and coal-fueled generation.
• Health Benefits: The farms are expected to prevent approximately 520 premature deaths annually from airborne particulate matter and ground-level ozone.
• Demographic Impact: The health benefits disproportionately affect Black, Hispanic, and low-income Americans, especially in the New York City area.
• Climate Impact: The farms are projected to reduce worldwide deaths from climate change by 1,600 per year.
• Cost Implications: While the non-environmental costs of the electricity supply increase, customer electricity and natural gas bills decrease.
• Future Developments: The study notes that it does not include the likely downward effect of the 32 offshore wind farms on the cost of subsequent offshore wind development or the benefits of increased future development.

Conclusion

This comprehensive analysis provides valuable insights into the potential impacts of offshore wind farms on the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts, highlighting significant health and environmental benefits despite increased costs. The study underscores the importance of continued support for offshore wind development in achieving broader emission reduction goals.