风暴、早期教育和人力资本（英）

Storms, Early Education, and Human Capital

This paper investigates the impact of school-age exposure to storms on education and employment outcomes in India. Using wind exposure histories, the study reveals significant adverse effects:

• Educational Delays: Exposure to an average storm increases the probability of educational delays by 2.4 percentage points, equivalent to a 7.25% rise in the fraction of delayed individuals.
• Post-Secondary Education: There is a 2 percentage point decline in the proportion of individuals attaining post-secondary education, corresponding to a 7.35% reduction in the proportion of individuals with this level of education.
• Employment: Regular salaried employment decreases by 1.6 percentage points, leading to an 8% reduction in the share of individuals employed as regular workers and a 4.8% increase in the share of individuals engaged in domestic duties.

These outcomes are driven by degraded school infrastructure and declining household income. The study also finds that severe tropical storms, once rare but increasingly common due to climate change, exacerbate these effects.

Methodology

• Data Source: The analysis uses a cross-sectional cohort study based on the 2018 Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS).
• Treatment Variable: A continuous treatment variable is created by aggregating wind exposure histories for each district and cohort born between 1985-1995.
• Robustness Checks: The results are validated through falsification tests and alternative specifications of school-age exposure to storms, ensuring that early-life exposure to storms or other environmental factors do not significantly influence the outcomes.

Key Findings

• Education: Long-term storm exposure leads to educational delays and a decline in post-secondary education attainment.
• Employment: There is a reduction in regular salaried employment, with an increase in domestic duties.
• Wages: Hourly wages decrease by 3.9%.

Implications

• Skill Degradation: Prolonged exposure to extreme environmental shocks during school years contributes to regional deskilling, potentially exacerbating inequalities.
• Policy Recommendations: Understanding the underlying pathways driving these outcomes is essential for devising appropriate mitigating policies.

Additional Insights

• Household Income and School Infrastructure: The study uses supplementary datasets (Consumer Pyramids and District Information System for Education) to explore the short-term mechanisms by which storms affect long-term educational outcomes, focusing on their impact on household income and school infrastructure damage.

This research underscores the critical need to address the long-term impacts of climate change on education and employment, highlighting the importance of resilient infrastructure and stable household incomes.