瑞银美国就业市场与通胀数据分析美联储政策走向20241010

瑞银-美国就业市场与通胀数据分析：美联储政策走向20241010_导读2024年10月12日19：05 关键词 CPI 全文摘要 就业数据讨论聚焦于非农就业人数增长254，000，反映就业市场稳健，失业率降至4.1%，小时薪资小幅上扬，提及新季节性模式可能影响未来报告。美联储政策讨论中，利率政策及经济数据关联受关注，初期失业申报增加，暗示可能达到高峰，受季节性调整及事件影响。CPI讨论强调近期数据符合预期，但核心CPI表现略强，汽油价格下跌和食品价格稳定，二手车价格上涨影响CPI，不季调核心CPI上涨预示年度CPI变化率升高，暗示美联储政策可能调整。PCE价格指数讨论显示通胀接近目标，反映经济健康状况。 章节速览 ●00：00U.S.EmploymentReportandInflationOutlook ThediscussioncenteredaroundthelatestU.S.employmentdata，highlightingasignificant254，000increaseinnon-farmpayrol employmentinSeptember.Therewerealsonotablerevisionstopreviousmonths’data，reflectingasteadyemploymentgrowthtrend.Theunemploymentratedecreasedto4.1%，andaveragehourlyearningsshowedaslightincrease.TheconversationalsotouchedonanewseasonalityemerginginU.S.data，potentialyafectingfutureemploymentreports.Furthermore，therewasafocusonFederalReserve’sstance，particularlyregardinginterestratecutsandtheinfluenceofeconomicdataonpolicydecisions.Initialjoblessclaimsrose，indicatingapossiblepeakinclaims，whichcouldbeafectedbyseasonaladjustmentsandpotentialdisruptionsfromstrikesandstorms. ●06：16预期本周关注CPI变动与市场影响 讨论集中于本周CPI可能的变动，特别是对市场影响的预期分析。虽然市场普遍预期会有进一步的降息，但对决 策背后的具体讨论和其对未来政策方向的暗示保持高度关注。此外，更新的预测数据对于市场理解CPI的潜在走向以及美联储的政策反应至关重要。 ●08：47CPI分析报告 讨论了近期的消费者物价指数(CPI)数据，指出尽管季节性调整后的CPI数据与市场预期相符，但核心CPI表现略强 于预期。分析了汽油价格下降、食品价格稳定、二手车价格上涨等因素对CPI的影响。强调了不季调核心CPI的上涨将导致年度CPI变化率上升，暗示美联储可能的政策调整。同时，对于PCE价格指数的讨论，显示通胀率正逐渐接近联邦储备的目标。 问答回顾 发言人问：WhatwasthesignificantemploymentgainreportedinSeptember？ 发言人答：ThesignificantemploymentgainreportedinSeptemberwasanon-farmpayrolemploymentexpansionof254，000. 发言人问：Howhastheunemploymentratechangedsincethepreviousreport？发言人答：Theunemploymentratedecreasedto4.1percent. 发言人问：Whatdidtheemploymentreportrevealaboutseasonalpatternsandemploymentworries？ 发言人答：Theemploymentreportrevealedanewseasonalitywithdiminishedseasonalpatternsaroundthewinterandsummer，whichmayberelatedtoeconomicshiftsandcouldpotentialysupportemploymentworriesseeninSeptember. 发言人问：Whatarethemovingaveragejobgrowthratesandhowdotheycomparetoeconomicindicators？ 发言人答：Thefourmonthsmovingaveragejobgrowthisaround169，000permonth，thesixmonthsmovingaverageisaround166，000，andtheseratesseemroughlyconsistentwitheconomicindicatorsinthelabormarket. 发言人问：Whatconcernswereraisedaboutthelabormarketoutlook，andhowdidtheFOMCChairrespond？ 发言人答：Concernsoverthelabormarketoutlookandinflationwereraised，andtheFOMCChair，inreiteratingthesummaryofeconomicprojections，suggestedthattheFOMCwouldbeguidedbydata，includingtheemploymentreportandotherindicators，tomakefuturepolicydecisions. 发言人问：Whattrendswerenotedininitialunemploymentclaimsandpotentialimpactsfromthestrike？ 发言人答：Initialunemploymentclaimsroseto225，000anditwasexpectedthatthesecouldbereachingalowpoint.TherewasalsoapotentialforanefectonthesupplychainandotherstatesasaresultofastrikeinWashingtonState. 发言人问：Howisthenewpandemicpatternaffectingseasonalclaims？ 发言人答：Thenewpandemicpatternofdiminishedseasonalarmsisliketothefour-weekmovingaverageclaimstodeclineandtwelfthandineachofthepastthreeSeptembersbeforerisingagain，indicatingapotentialreachingthekindoftoughthereintheclaimdata. 发言人问：WhatwillbethefocusofthediscussionthisweekregardingtheCPI？ 发言人答：ThefocusofthediscussionthisweekregardingtheCPIwilbeonthefocusontheCPI，withparticularinterestintheFOMCminutestogainmorecolorontheunitywithinthecommitteeregardingthefiftybasispointcut. 发言人问：WhataretheexpectationsfortheheadlineandcoreCPInumbers？ 发言人答：TheheadlineCPIisexpectedtobeconsistentwiththeBloombergconsensusfromlastnight，resultinginalittleboringforecast.ThecoreCPIisexpectedtobestrongerthantheconsensus，withanumberaround27basispointslowerthanlastweek’sestimateof31basispoints.Asoflastnight，theconsensuswasat23basispoints. 发言人问：Howdoestheforecastedheadlinenumbercomparetotheswapquote？ 发言人答：Theforecastedheadlinenumberisverysimilartotheswapquote.AsofFridaynight，theswapquotewasaroundninebasispoints，whichisabasicpointdiferentfromthetenbasispointsforecast，bothseasonalyadjustedandunadjusted. 发言人问：WhatfactorsinfluencethecoreCPInumber？ 发言人答：ThecoreCPInumberisinfluencedbyseasonalfactorsthathaveafecteditsincethepreviousyear，causinganinebasispointdiferencefromthepreviousyear’sfigure.ThenotseasonalyadjustedcoreCPInumberinSeptemberisexpectedtobesignificantlyhigherthanthesameperiodlastyear，contributingtoarisingtwelve-monthchangeforthecoreCPI. 发言人问：HowareusedandnewcarpricesexpectedtoimpactthecoregoodsCPI？ 发言人答：UsedcarpricesareexpectedtohaveapositiveimpactonthecoregoodsCPI，withanincreaseofabouttwoandaquarterpercentoncourse.Newcarpricesarealsoexpectedtobepositive，butothercoregoodspricesmaystilbenegative.ThechangeintheusecarmethodologyintroducedatthebeginningoftheyearisanticipatedtoresultinastrongerincreaseinthenotseasonalyadjustedcoreCPInumber. 发言人问：Whatimpactdoesthedeclineininternationalshippingcostshaveoncoregoodprices？发言人答：Thedeclineininternationalshippingcostsisexpectedtohaveaminorupwardimpactoncoregoodprices.However，therehasbeenlesspass-throughefectfromtheseshippingcostsoncoregoodspricesoutsideoftransportation. 发言人问：Whatistheexpectedinflationrateforthecor