2024年9月首席经济学家展望报告

Chief Economists Outlook - September 2024

Executive Summary

The September 2024 Chief Economists Outlook highlights ongoing economic uncertainty. While the global economy is showing signs of stabilization, many vulnerabilities persist. According to the survey, 54% of chief economists expect the global economic condition to remain unchanged over the next year, while 37% expect conditions to weaken, and only 9% anticipate strengthening. Key points include:

• Economic Growth: The IMF projects global growth to ease from 3.2% in 2024 to 3.1% in 2029. The prolonged sluggish growth and heightened political volatility pose significant risks.
• US Presidential Election Impact: Eight out of ten chief economists believe the US election result will significantly impact global economic policy.
• Regional Outlook:
  • South Asia: Expected to see strong or very strong growth in 2024 and 2025.
  • US: Expected to grow moderately over the same period.
  • Europe: Expected to experience weak growth this year, with a modest improvement expected in 2025.
  • China: Expected to experience weak or very weak growth both this year and next.

Financial Stability and Debt Dynamics

• Public Debt Burdens: Public debt represents a threat to macroeconomic stability in both advanced (53%) and developing (64%) economies.
• Fiscal Squeeze: Rising debt-servicing costs have led to a fiscal squeeze, affecting government efforts to boost growth. Approximately 3.3 billion people now live in countries where debt interest expenditures exceed spending on education or health.
• Debt Dynamics: Current debt dynamics are expected to undermine government efforts to drive growth and leave countries unprepared for future economic downturns.

Policy Challenges

• Balanced Growth: Policy-makers face the challenge of driving higher rates of economic growth while influencing its structural character.
• Obstacles: Two main obstacles are highlighted: a lack of political consensus or will (cited by 91%) and a lack of global collaboration (67%).
• Leadership and Collaboration: Respondents view the problem primarily as one of leadership rather than broad opposition. There is little prospect of short-term improvements due to domestic political trends and geopolitical tensions.

Market Reactions

• Stock Market Volatility: An interest rate rise in Japan and a rise in US unemployment triggered significant market reactions, with the S&P 500 dropping by over 5% and Japan's TOPIX falling by more than 20%.
• Market Sentiment: The VIX, a gauge of investor nervousness, reached a peak of 65.73, indicating heightened market anxiety.

Overall, the report underscores the need for policymakers to address both immediate and long-term challenges, including fostering global collaboration and addressing structural economic issues.