大中华区零售物业供应 需求核心趋势9月刊（英）

Greater China Retail Supply/Demand Trends Advancing Through Innovation (September 2024)

Executive Summary

• Market Overview: China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached RMB 23.1 trillion in H1 2024, driven by innovations in technology, new retail formats, and new business models, which collectively improved service and shopping experiences. The main focus trends for the year include:
  • Supply and Demand Dynamics: The retail property market in key Chinese cities has seen significant changes, with new retail formats and business models continuing to emerge.
  • Retail Space Expansion: Total prime retail space in core markets increased to 112.5 million square meters, with traditional commercial retail properties undergoing upgrades.

Key Data Points

• Retail Sales:

  • Total retail sales in H1 2024 reached RMB 23.1 trillion.
  • Year-over-year (YoY) growth in retail sales was 3.7%.

• Retail Space:

  • Total prime retail space in core markets increased to 112.5 million square meters by Q2 2021.
  • The vacancy rate in major cities saw a slight increase, reaching 7.4% in Q1 2024, down from 7.5% in Q4 2022.
  • The average vacancy rate in sub-markets with superior locations decreased to 11.4% in H1 2024, compared to 11.8% in H1 2023.
  • Vacancy rates in high-end retail properties increased to 9.55% in H1 2024, up from 8.9% in H1 2023.

• Regional Highlights:

  • Beijing: Retail market recorded 1.5 million square meters of new shopping centers, with 15.5 million square meters of retail space completed.
  • Shenzhen: Total prime retail space grew by 1.1 million square meters, recording 1.5 million square meters of new retail space.
  • Hangzhou: Retail market saw 1.21 million square meters of new projects, with a vacancy rate of 1.2%.
  • Shanghai: Continued to attract international brands, with a record low rental rate of RMB 12.1 per square meter per month.
  • Chengdu: Retail market experienced a significant rebound, with a vacancy rate dropping to 7.8% in H1 2024.
  • Hong Kong: Fully reopened to tourists since early 2023, with a visitor count surpassing pre-pandemic levels. The city's retail market saw a recovery in spending, with a YoY growth of 8.13% in H1 2024.

• Consumer Trends:

  • Luxury and fashion retail properties saw positive business sentiment, with a growth rate of 9.5% in H1 2024.
  • Hangzhou is expected to see an increase in luxury retail space, with a projected growth of 1.5 million square meters by the end of 2026.
  • Shenzhen's retail market continued to develop, with new spaces scheduled for completion in 2026.

• Future Outlook:

  • The retail property market in Shenzhen is expected to continue growing, driven by construction of new projects and renewed openings.
  • Beijing and Shanghai are expected to see continued demand for retail properties, with an emphasis on sustainable consumption and innovation.
  • Hong Kong's retail market is expected to recover further, with a focus on attracting more international consumers and developing new retail spaces.

Conclusion

The retail landscape in Greater China continues to evolve, driven by technological advancements and innovative retail formats. Key cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Shenzhen are seeing significant growth in retail space and consumer spending, with a focus on sustainability and consumer experience improvements.