到2035年净零碳：美国电力系统快速脱碳的途径（英）

Net Zero by 2035: A Pathway to Rapidly Decarbonize the US Power System

Key Points:

1. Target and Impact:

   • The US aims to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050.
   • By 2035, the goal is to create a carbon pollution-free power sector, reducing power sector emissions by 59% by 2040 compared to 2005 levels.
   • Federal emissions-reduction efforts are expected to result in a 50-52% reduction in emissions by 2030.

2. Role of the Power Sector:

   • The power sector plays a crucial role in decarbonization, with early decarbonization being a key factor in achieving a decarbonized economy.
   • Transitioning from fossil fuels to clean electricity generated by renewables is essential for decarbonizing other sectors like transportation and buildings.

3. Electrical Load Growth:

   • To meet increased demand, total electricity generation needs to increase by about 40% by 2035.
   • This translates to an annual growth rate of 2.0% in the next decade, compared to 0.5% under the status quo scenario.

4. Decarbonization Scenario:

   • In the "Net Zero by 2035" scenario, each regional power market would reach net-zero GHG emissions by 2035 without offsets from other sectors.
   • Grids in colder regions like New England have already shifted to winter peaks, while warmer regions like California and Texas will maintain summer peaking but see higher winter demand.

5. Cost Implications:

   • Building new sources of power generation, transmission infrastructure, and grid flexibility resources could cost up to $2.5 trillion by 2035.
   • Costs to upgrade distribution grids, expand transmission networks, and invest in new maritime ports for offshore wind are significant.

6. Strategic Moves:

   • Move 1: Accelerate deployment of renewable energy projects, particularly solar and wind.
   • Move 2: Expand interstate transmission corridors to address transmission bottlenecks.
   • Move 3: Standardize permitting processes and improve siting regulations to facilitate faster deployment.
   • Move 4: Scale supply chains and enhance skilled labor to support rapid deployment.
   • Move 5: Increase the rate of annual deployment of renewable capacity to sevenfold.

7. Challenges and Solutions:

   • High renewable penetration leads to transmission congestion, causing interconnection costs to rise and many renewable projects to drop out of the development pipeline.
   • Addressing these challenges requires a comprehensive effort, including improved permitting and siting, new maritime port facilities, and expanded supply chains.

8. Alternative Pathways:

   • While the "Net Zero by 2035" scenario is a least-cost pathway, other pathways exist, especially for achieving 80-90% decarbonization.
   • Longer deployment horizons could help reduce costs and provide more runway for reliability improvements.

Conclusion:

Achieving net-zero emissions by 2035 through rapid decarbonization of the US power sector requires significant investment and strategic planning. Key strategies include accelerating renewable energy deployment, expanding transmission infrastructure, and improving regulatory frameworks. These efforts are critical for supporting broader decarbonization goals and ensuring a reliable and resilient electric grid.