Oil 2018

Analysis and Forecasts to 2023: International Energy Agency's Oil Market Report 2018

Executive Summary

• Executive Director's Note: Dr. Fatih Birol highlights the significant changes in the oil market, particularly the resurgence of U.S. production driven by light tight oil (LTO).
• Key Drivers: The report emphasizes the importance of sustainable petrochemicals industry growth, with a focus on creating a more sustainable sector.
• Energy Security: The report underscores the critical role of energy security in shaping oil market policies.

1. Demand

• Global Overview:
  • Macroeconomic Environment and Prices: Factors influencing global economic conditions and commodity prices.
  • Coming Changes in Bunker Fuel Specifications: New regulations affecting shipping and refining industries.
  • Booming Demand for Petrochemicals: Growth in petrochemicals is a key driver of oil demand, highlighting the need for sustainable practices.
• OECD Demand:
  • Americas: Detailed analysis of demand trends in North American countries.
  • Europe: Examination of demand patterns across European nations.
  • Asia Oceania: Analysis of demand in Australia, New Zealand, and other Pacific Rim countries.
• Non-OECD Demand:
  • Africa: Study of demand in African countries.
  • China: In-depth look at China's growing demand.
  • Other Asia: Analysis of demand in Asian countries outside China.
  • Non-OECD Europe: Examination of demand in non-OECD European countries.
  • Former Soviet Union (FSU): Analysis of demand in FSU countries.
  • Latin America: Study of demand in Latin American countries.
  • Middle East: Examination of demand in Middle Eastern countries.

2. Supply

• Highlights:
  • U.S. Production: Significant increase in U.S. oil production, driven by LTO.
  • Global Supply Projections: Revised projections showing continued growth in global oil supply.
  • New Refining Trends: Middle Eastern producers increasingly focusing on refining capabilities.
  • Trade Routes: Shift in global oil trade routes towards Asia, with China and India replacing the U.S. as top importers.

3. Key Points

• Investment Concerns: Upstream investment remains low, raising concerns about future supply adequacy.
• Environmental Considerations: Policies aimed at reducing the environmental impact of energy production and use.
• Engagement: The IEA's ongoing efforts to collaborate with member and partner countries to address shared energy and environmental challenges.

Conclusion

The report provides comprehensive insights into the evolving oil market, emphasizing the need for sustainable practices and energy security. It highlights the critical role of the U.S. in global oil production and the increasing importance of Asia in the global energy landscape.