Decarbonisation Pathways for Southeast Asia
Overview
The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ) have developed and published long-term decarbonisation pathways for Southeast Asia and Indonesia. This paper compares the modelling approaches, quantitative drivers, and results from the IEA and IEEJ pathways, highlighting areas of agreement and identifying differences.
Executive Summary
The IEA and IEEJ apply unique energy modelling frameworks, differing in regional granularity and approaches, and reflecting different sets of inputs in their respective scenarios. The two decarbonisation pathways reflect uncertainties around the pace of technology development, commercialisation, and costs, as well as prevailing fossil fuel prices. The IEA APS and IEEJ CN2050/2060 describe two possible decarbonisation pathways for Southeast Asia and Indonesia, each representing a path but not necessarily the pathway due to numerous uncertainties and the need for numerous decisions to achieve net zero goals.
Key Drivers
Both pathways emphasize:
- Renewable Energy: Scaling up renewable energy is central to both pathways, leading the decarbonisation of the electricity sector and for direct use in transport.
- Electrification: The importance of electrification to improve the energy efficiency of various applications, including transport, and taking advantage of decarbonised electricity supply.
- Shift Away from Coal: A strong shift away from unabated coal-fired power plants, which represent the single largest source of CO2 emissions in Southeast Asia today.
Differences
One of the most significant distinctions is the assumption of economic growth, where the IEEJ CN2050/2060 assumes a higher Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate than the IEA APS. This contributes to different outcomes in terms of energy demand and emissions reduction strategies.
Conclusion
While the IEA and IEEJ present distinct pathways, they share common pillars of decarbonisation, including scaling up renewable energy, promoting electrification, and shifting away from coal. These pathways provide valuable insights for policymakers in the region and beyond on potential ways to reduce CO2 emissions and achieve net zero goals in the long term.
