CO2 Emissions in 2023: A New Record High, but Signs of Hope
Executive Summary
Global energy-related CO2 emissions reached a new record high of 37.4 billion tonnes (Gt) in 2023, marking a 1.1% increase from the previous year. This increase, however, is significantly lower than the 3% growth in global GDP, indicating a slowdown in the rate of emissions growth. The primary contributors to this increase were coal emissions, which accounted for over 65% of the total increase, and the shortfall in hydropower generation due to droughts.
Key Data Points
- Total Increase in Emissions: 410 million tonnes (Mt) in 2023.
- Coal Contribution: Coal emissions alone accounted for more than 65% of the increase.
- Hydropower Impact: Droughts led to a shortfall in hydropower generation, driving up emissions by approximately 170 Mt.
- Clean Energy Technologies: The deployment of five key clean energy technologies—solar PV, wind, nuclear, heat pumps, and electric cars—reduced emissions growth by 1.3 Gt CO2.
Regional Analysis
- Advanced Economies: Emissions in advanced economies fell by 4.5% in 2023, largely due to strong renewables deployment and coal-to-gas switching in the US. GDP growth in advanced economies was 1.7%.
- China: Emissions in China increased by 565 Mt, the largest increase globally, driven by economic growth post-pandemic. However, China continued to dominate global clean energy additions, with a significant portion of the increase attributed to a historically bad hydro year.
- India: Strong GDP growth led to a 190 Mt increase in emissions, but a weak monsoon increased electricity demand and cut hydro production, contributing around one-quarter of the increase.
Historical Context
- Decadal Trends: Over the past decade, global CO2 emissions grew by slightly more than 0.5% per year, slower than the 1970s and 1980s, which experienced major disruptions.
- Structural Slowdown: Even as global prosperity grows, CO2 emissions are experiencing a structural slowdown, similar to the periods of World War I and the Great Depression.
Conclusion
While CO2 emissions reached a new record high in 2023, the rapid deployment of clean energy technologies is mitigating the growth. The emissions slowdown is a significant step towards meeting the global climate goals set out in the Paris Agreement.
