按系列划分的VC回报：第四部分（英）2024

VC Returns by Series: Part IV - Key Takeaways

Introduction and Methodology Update

• Objective: To analyze the relationship between an investor's entry point and the eventual returns in the US venture capital (VC) market.
• Methodology Update:
  • Payout Ratio Calculation: Replaced total deal size with aggregate equity to better reflect the total amount of equity investments a company has received, enhancing accuracy for investors.
  • Exit Type Calculation: Adjusted the payout calculation for companies exiting through an IPO, now using the pre-money valuation of the IPO to determine the exit size, providing a more precise representation of returns.
  • Out-of-Business Adjustment: Expanded the criteria for calculating failure rates to include companies that have not raised a subsequent major round (venture or debt financing) in the last six years, improving the accuracy of failure rate estimations.

VC Returns by Series Overview

• Early Stages (Seed): Seed investments have the highest rate of annualized return, reflecting the high-risk, high-reward nature of early-stage ventures.
• Series A and Beyond: Series A investments follow closely behind seed investments in terms of return potential. Series D+ investments show slightly lower but still significant returns.
• Sector Comparison:
  • Software as a Service (SaaS): SaaS investments exhibit a notably lower failure rate by company count across all stages of venture compared to the overall US VC market. However, they slightly underperform in annualized returns at the seed stage.
  • Life Sciences: Annualized returns at the seed stage in life sciences surpass those of the overall venture market and SaaS sector. Returns decline steadily across later stages, hovering around 11.2% for Series C and beyond.
• Market Dynamics: The current market downturn has made the venture landscape more favorable to investors, highlighting the distinction between successful and less successful companies, which impacts their risk-return profiles differently.

Conclusion

This report provides a detailed analysis of VC returns segmented by series and industry sectors, offering insights into the evolving dynamics of the US VC market. By comparing SaaS and life sciences sectors, it highlights the unique risk-return profiles within these industries and underscores the importance of timing and sector selection in venture investing. The methodology updates aim to enhance the accuracy and comprehensiveness of the analysis, providing valuable guidance for investors navigating the complexities of the venture capital landscape.