您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。[中泰证券]:三一重能24半年报点评:风机业务边际盈利改善明显,双海战略加速推进 - 发现报告
当前位置:首页/公司研究/报告详情/

三一重能24半年报点评:风机业务边际盈利改善明显,双海战略加速推进

2024-09-06曾彪、吴鹏中泰证券杨***
三一重能24半年报点评:风机业务边际盈利改善明显,双海战略加速推进

IJKL(688349.SH)/ab cd IJKL24MN:Hƒ#OP1QRS>?TUVWXYZ[\]^_` efgh:;/<=Hƒ2024N9i6j ƒ"#$%&'%(<=>?@ABCD !"ffi$%23.77&'()%*+ ,-./01%S0740522020001 Email%zengbiao@zts.com.cn '()%23 ,-./01%S0740522040004 Email%wupeng@zts.com.cn 232022A2023A2024E2025E2026E _-`ab78&c12,32514,93920,37224,60629,589 defyoy%21.1%21.2%36.4%20.8%20.3% ghib78&c1,6482,0072,1732,4192,874 defyoy%3.6%21.8%8.3%11.3%18.8% j5`kb&c1.341.641.771.972.34 j5lm9n0.620.892.062.613.08 gop`kf15%16%15%15%16% P/E17.714.513.412.110.1 P/B2.62.32.11.81.6 qr%j5stuvwx56yz[|]R~75ffiÄÅ2024Ç9É5I`Öffi )*+, EFGH 456789:2024;<;=>2024;1<;@ABC52.80D>EF+34.9%>GHIJK4.34D>EF-46.9%>LJM16.0%>EF-4.5pctN24Q2@ABC35.53D>EF+51.1%>OF+105.6%>GHIJK1.68D>EF-49.8%>OF 456(785) 1,226 9:56(785) 188 QRST6 !ffi(&) 23.77 !;(78&) 29,152 20241<;GHIJKEFUV>W,XYZ[\]^_`abc*de> 9:!;(78&) 4,476 ]^bcfgEFhiPjk>EPCl"m9nopqrJKEFstuv -36.9%P -ffi/01-2345fi7 !"Ø$%&300 5% 2023-09 2023-10 2023-11 2023-12 2024-01 2024-02 2024-03 2024-04 2024-05 2024-06 2024-07 2024-08 2024-09 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% -35% 89:; 1DEFGHIJKLMNOPQRS6TU+VWflYZ[\]^ we*UxP ]yz[Q"|]>78~JõÄÅÇ.ÉP20241<;78@A]nyÑCÖ49.2DÜN@A]yáà3.3GW>EFâä121%N@A]yQ"LJM15.1%>OF23H2ãå6pct>1<;çéèeëíeõÄP ìîïdñó:ò>tôöõ78QRâäúflûPü†°ó1]n:ò¢£>78ó1§•]y¶ß®M©™8MW-16MW´¨>ó1]nyÑfiÆtØïd>SI-23085Æy±2023;6§Ñ¥>µÍµ„ŠÆ>±2024;5§’4ºàfiÆÆæPø¿78¡¬ïdÄ^ƒ[Ñ4ç.Éd[>tôU<;@AÄ^«»PüókÄ^:ò¢£>…3 eaÀÃÕa…ÀŒœ–ë—ø>“”‘E’~÷> =;ÿŸtô⁄â>õ)èókCÖî¤ãå‹U›@fiflPE‡>·‚a„‰ÂaÊÁËaÃÈÍÎöÏÌ78>ïÓ eÔSfi¶>ÚÛÙıˆ˜aÔS_`>ãå=˘˙˚•¸P )è[ô6†°Ä^˝J˛ˇ!g>#ìó1$~du%&'˝J()NE‡>ókú*Ä^+ƒ-~>78ókÿŸì¤.$>ïÓ@A~J/åP ˝J˛µ012T364578]n^bc9[67ö8>9:1!78QR> ˛;7824-26;@AGHIJK0<õ21.7/24.2/28.7DÜ=¿˛µ>24-25 ;21.26//23.93D3>EF+8%/+11%/+19%>@¿AffifiDPE0<õ13/12/10 E>FGHâG”T3P ]JãK6+ƒLM˛ˇNNOìPNQRSffiTUÓÍP ˝J˛µV !"#$% ®©:™7£ &'% ®©:™7£ ()*+ 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E ()*+ 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E ,-!. 11,547 12,807 15,123 17,799 /012 14,939 20,372 24,606 29,589 3145 544 741 896 1,077 /067 12,395 15,721 18,852 22,412 3189 3,833 5,228 6,314 7,593 :.;<= 119 102 122 145 >?89 203 257 308 366 @ABC 1,085 1,263 1,510 1,798 D, 3,087 3,915 4,695 5,581 EFBC 535 570 682 812 GH!" 1,751 2,388 2,885 3,469 IJBC 872 1,019 1,218 1,450 KLMN!" 3,641 4,907 5,893 7,054 OPBC -187 -13 -36 -61 MN!"G) 22,855 27,855 33,228 39,470 QCRSTU -49 -85 -70 -60 KLVWX! 37 37 37 37 !"RSTU 18 -15 -15 -15 VWYZX! 1,141 1,141 1,141 1,141 [\]S^N1_ -44 -27 -48 -40 `a!" 4,785 4,441 4,139 3,875 X!1_ 1,798 500 250 0 bcde 553 633 703 763 KL1_ 534 500 500 500 fg!" 716 1,015 1,285 1,528 /0&' 2,376 2,584 2,875 3,418 KLhMN!" 3,289 3,289 3,289 3,289 /0i12 30 29 30 30 hMN!"G) 10,521 10,557 10,594 10,632 /0ijk 7 15 13 12 !"G) 33,376 38,412 43,822 50,102 &'lm 2,399 2,598 2,892 3,436 nWo9 771 500 500 500 pq: 392 425 473 562 3?45 3,558 4,422 5,196 6,054 r&' 2,007 2,173 2,419 2,874 3?89 6,574 8,171 9,603 11,188 stYuT_ 0 0 0 0 >19v 259 353 426 513 wxy[zr&' 2,007 2,173 2,419 2,874 GH#$ 2,705 3,689 4,456 5,359 NOPLAT 1,850 2,162 2,388 2,823 KL3?9 1,467 1,467 1,467 1,467 EPS[|]~Y7ŠÅ1.641.771.972.34 Ç*ÉÑWÖhMN#$ 1,455 1,455 1,455 1,455 KLMN#$ 2,285 2,805 3,326 3,875 ÜáOPàâ MN#$G) 19,073 22,863 26,430 30,411 ()*+20232024E2025E2026E VWo9 1,135 1,135 1,135 1,135 6Väã 3?$å 0 0 0 0 /012çVâ 21.2% 36.4% 20.8% 20.3% KLhMN#$ 374 213 213 213 EBITçVâ 21.8% 16.8% 10.5% 18.2% hMN#$G) 1,509 1,348 1,348 1,348 wy[zr&'çVâ 21.8% 8.3% 11.3% 18.8% #$G) 20,582 24,211 27,778 31,759 é&äã wxy[zpèêZ_ 12,793 14,201 16,045 18,343 ë&â 17.0% 22.8% 23.4% 24.3% stYuZ_ 0 0 0 0 r&â 13.4% 10.7% 9.8% 9.7% pèêZ_G) 12,793 14,201 16,045 18,343 ROE 15.7% 15.3% 15.1% 15.7% #$íYuZ_33,37638,41243,82250,102 ROIC 18.5% 20.1% 19.4% 19.8% ì$äã î.Mï%®©:™7£ !"#$â 61.7% 63.0% 63.4% 63.4% ()*+20232024E2025E2026E $PZ_à 29.2% 23.3% 20.6% 18.0% ñ/óNî.M 1,089 2,525 3,205 3,781 MNàâ 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 î.1_ 2,267 2,681 2,902 3,330 òNàâ 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 D,ôö -1,451 -828 -780 -887 /õäã ñ/ú31ôö -1,720 -1,631 -1,277 -1,503 l!"ùûâ 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 ñ/ú3?ôö 4,387 2,556 2,279 2,530 3189ùûüt 74 80 84 85 KLôö -2,394 -253 81 311 3?89ùûüt 155 169 170 167 X!óNî.M -1,049 -80 -350 -591 D,ùûüt 69 80 82 83 !7jk -932 -557 -557 -556 †Y°¢[£Å YZX! -846 0 0 0 †Y1_ 1.64 1.77 1.97 2.34 KLVW!"^§ 729 477 207 -35 †Yñ/î.M 0.89 2.06 2.61 3.08 •!óNî.M 2,271 -1,185 -539 -514 †Yr!" 10.43 11.58 13.08 14.96 o9ç= -384 -271 0 0 ¶Sàâ Y&;&ßj? -599 -864 -945 -1,107 P/E 14.5 13.4 12.1 10.1 Yu•! 25 0 0 0 P/B 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.6 KLôö 3,229 -50 406 593 EV/EBITDA 76 65 60 52 !"#Wind$%&'()*+ EFƒ"kV# T3 W. AXT3 YÖ ˛ˇZ¢6~12맰[fiEˇfi\2]^w“15%_1 âG ˛ˇZ¢6~12맰[fiEˇfi\2]^w“5%~15%(` Gt ˛ˇZ¢6~12맰[fiEˇfi\2]^w“-10%~+5%(` hG ˛ˇZ¢6~12맰[fiEˇfi\2]aw“10%_1 bQT3 âG ˛ˇZ¢6~12맰fiEˇfi\2]^w“10%_1 …c ˛ˇZ¢6~12맰fiEˇfi\2]^w“-10%~+10%(` hG ˛ˇZ¢6~12맰fiEˇfi\2]aw“10%_1 Ûd6T33\õ=e9:6)*6~12맰78Affi=fbQ2]3[fiEˇfi\2]*[fiÄ^VAPg…AAÄ^_hi3002]õfi\NújoÄ^_joö2=kfilmbc3*3fjonÄ2]=kfinÄbc3*3õfi\NopÄ^_qrstJ…†2]õfi\>uAÄ^_3v5002]fw˜xˆy‘2]õfi\=jtW.*zk3P Ø"ø$% …[Æ|A]t~78=_U≥ÄHÅ78”3Çt…†Æ|ÉÑÖÜáàâäã*Æ|12åçQ"2TP Å=eéèÅ78*êëíìPÅ78LâîïCñCóÅ=eòôgõêëP Å=efi±Å78Mgöõñàfiõãú*7ù2Sf@Îûö2S>ü†°¢£*öõ§S>¸ƒ•Ïaê§m7&>(¶Lß®©™j|*´¨f[\PÅ78¸ƒ4LÆÆØ*ú±*\©cm