大幻觉 ： 对俄罗斯的误解对美国政策的影响

Summary of "Grand Illusions: The Impact of Misperceptions About Russia on U.S. Policy"

Key Factors Influencing U.S. Misunderstandings of Russia

1. Post-Cold War Euphoria: A lingering sense of superiority following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the assumption of Russia's permanent decline has led to difficulties in acknowledging Russia's pushback against Western policies. This was particularly evident during NATO's expansions, where U.S. leaders ignored Russian objections and underestimated the extent of Russian countermeasures.

2. Neglected Drivers of Russian Behavior: Western policymakers have historically failed to adequately consider the historical, cultural, and political factors driving Russian foreign policy. These include Russia's geographical history, troubled relations with European powers, the trauma of losing its empire, lingering ideological beliefs of greatness, and a sense of entitlement based on its sacrifices during World War II. President Vladimir Putin exploits these factors for domestic political gain.

3. Overlooking Lessons from Cold War Crises: The U.S. has not fully internalized the lessons from significant Cold War crises like the Cuban missile crisis and the Euromissile crisis. In both instances, the Soviet Union took drastic measures to counter perceived U.S. threats to its homeland. The U.S.'s eastward expansion of NATO was seen as unnecessary given Russia's assumed weakness, leading to surprise when Russia proved resilient.

Contemporary Russian Foreign Policy

• Over the past decade, Russian foreign policy has become more assertive, adversarial, and ambitious, employing a diverse range of hard, soft, and gray zone power instruments across various regions. This has caught the West off guard, sparking concerns over Russia's return as a major threat to Western interests.

• Despite its gains and innovative use of power projection tools, Russia's actual accomplishments have been less impressive than often portrayed. Its successes are attributed to exploiting U.S. and allied mistakes and moving into power vacuums left by them.

Challenges and Implications

• Russia remains a significant national security concern due to its nuclear arsenal, conventional and cyber capabilities, and the U.S.'s commitment to NATO, which faces a tense standoff with Russia near its heartland.

• It is crucial to accurately assess Russia's capabilities, intentions, and threat perceptions to avoid wasting resources, distorting national priorities, and escalating risks of confrontation. Prioritization of interests is key, with Europe being the primary theater of confrontation.

• Misreading Russia can lead to overextension, unrealistic commitments, and a dangerous escalation, especially in light of Russia's status as a nuclear peer competitor.

• Understanding the full scope of Russia's global activism requires a balanced assessment of its gains and tools, considering their impact on U.S. interests and regional dynamics.

• Effective crisis management, risk reduction, and conflict prevention strategies necessitate a comprehensive understanding of Russian conduct and the factors influencing it.