The report discusses the impending presidential election in Russia on March 18th, where Vladimir Putin is expected to win and extend his presidency for another six years until 2024. Putin's victory is considered inevitable, with polls predicting a support rate of over 70%, thus eliminating the need for a runoff. The success of this election isn't measured by the percentage of votes but by voter turnout, which the Kremlin aims to match or exceed from the 2012 elections.
The lack of competition and campaigning has made Putin's victory more predictable, but it also exposes him to the risk of low voter turnout, which could be interpreted as a lack of support. Navalny, a key opposition leader, has been barred from participating due to his anti-corruption videos that have garnered millions of views across the country. The Kremlin has tried to increase voter turnout through campaigns, especially after a historically low turnout in parliamentary elections in September 2016.
Putin's state of the nation address on March 1st focused on promising increased social spending, infrastructure investments, and ambitious plans for public administration digitization. However, details on funding these plans were scarce, as the budget continues to allocate funds to defense projects and remains stagnant. The liberal wing of the regime hopes for a national modernization plan following the election, given the potential financial constraints without oil price increases.
The report also discusses the importance of Putin's address in rallying the electorate, with plans for increased social spending, infrastructure investment, and ambitious digitalization of public administration. However, two factors may limit any significant reforms: the need to maintain the regime and its leaders, and the strong influence of power over wealth in Russia. Any economic reform would also be subject to the defense of Russian sovereignty and national security, according to the Economic National Security Strategy approved in May 2017.
In addition, the report highlights the controversial part of Putin's address, where he presented a series of supposedly invincible weapons designed to give Russia an unparalleled superiority. This move aimed to boost national pride and voter turnout, aligning with the fourth anniversary of Russia's annexation of Crimea. However, this announcement might not necessarily confirm a victory over Islamic State, as some setbacks in Syria make it difficult to sell such a victory immediately. The address also targeted Western nations, potentially worsening relations with the US. The authenticity of these systems is questioned by many analysts, but they confirm the aggressive stance of the Kremlin in militaryizing its foreign policy and intimidating European countries.
