The process by which European leaders chose the President of the European Commission in 2014 has been severely challenged, possibly to the point of collapse. This occurred during a time when the European project was significantly questioned, especially due to the North-South divide, and panic was felt over the declining voter turnout in European elections. The legitimacy of the European Parliament could also be put into question.
To boost participation, the two main groups in the European Parliament agreed on a 'Spitzenkandidaten' or lead candidate system for the European elections, with this person also being their proposed President of the Commission. They relied on Article 17.7 of the Treaty on European Union, which suggests that the Council of the European Union should propose a candidate for the role of President of the Commission based on the election results. This was seen as a step towards making EU politics more political and democratic.
The Spitzenkandidaten system faced resistance from some quarters - the intergovernmentalists and the Council of the European Union were not enthusiastic about it. However, they did not fully oppose it because they had other priorities in mind. The European People's Party (EPP) won the elections, and Jean-Claude Juncker became the President of the Commission, despite some opposition from heads of state and government.
In 2019, the future of the Spitzenkandidaten system is uncertain. Different political actors are positioning themselves either in favor or against this election process. Emmanuel Macron and the Council of the European Union want to eliminate the Spitzenkandidaten system. Macron attempted to push for a transnational list system, but this was rejected by the European Parliament due to its potential to dismantle existing power structures in the Parliament. Macron then joined the liberals but insisted on his own candidate for the Commission presidency, while the liberals had to give up the Spitzenkandidaten system.
The Council of the European Union wishes to regain its dominance in selecting the President of the Commission. European governments dislike the Commission's self-proclaimed status as the "most political" Commission, as it is seen as exceeding its responsibilities, which belong to the Council. Moreover, the Council believes that attempting to politicize the Commission could undermine the European project if it fails to deliver promised outcomes.
The future of the Spitzenkandidaten system hinges on the outcome of the next European elections. The European People's Party may still have the largest number of MEPs, but securing the presidency of the Commission might require votes from up to four different groups, making the election process complex. For the Social Democrats, finding an alternative majority for their candidate, Frans Timmermans, would be even more challenging. The Council of the European Union may intervene if the Parliament fails to reach an agreement within the available time, potentially ignoring the Spitzenkandidaten candidates and assigning the presidency or other roles to preferred profiles. Despite this, the Council might struggle to appoint a woman to the presidency of the Commission, given that this position has never been held by a woman in the history of the European Union.
