阿尔及利亚被困在岩石和坚硬的地方之间

CIDOB Opinion 601, November 2019, discusses the significant impact of the Hirak movement in Algeria, which began in January 2019, and its implications for the country's political landscape and stability.

Main Points:

1. Massive Protests: Hundreds of thousands, sometimes millions of Algerians have been participating in weekly protests across the country, challenging the political status quo and demanding a greater role in shaping their nation's history.

2. Rejection of Fifth Term: The protests specifically targeted the idea of a fifth presidential term for Abdelaziz Bouteflika, who was medically incapable of fulfilling his duties. This was a key issue in the mass demonstrations.

3. Foreign Perception Misalignment: Initially, foreign observers, including those in European capitals, underestimated the strength of the Algerian opposition, mistaking the lack of violent confrontation for lack of opposition.

4. Autistic Army Tactics: The Algerian army's harsh response to the protests risked undermining its historical legitimacy. It has also been accused of hijacking the judicial system, leading to the harassment and legal action against thousands of NGOs and civil society activists.

5. Impact on Unity and Legitimacy: The army's actions have strained the unity of Algeria and raised questions about its commitment to democratic processes. The legitimacy of any upcoming elections is likely to be questioned by a significant portion of the population.

6. Western Media Bias: The Western media has historically portrayed Algeria through a lens of turmoil, violence, and extremism, often failing to recognize the resilience and complexity of Algerian society.

7. Refusal to Resort to Violence: Despite increasing state repression, the Hirak movement has largely avoided violence, highlighting its strategic approach and the potential long-term consequences of violent responses.

8. Strategic Incompetence Among Leaders: The appointment of individuals such as Abderrahmane Aymen to key positions, and the reported lack of oversight over ministerial responsibilities, suggests broader issues with leadership and governance.

9. Historical Legitimacy and Palace Intrigue: The focus on high-level political maneuverings and palace intrigue might overshadow the grassroots movements and social forces driving the Hirak.

10. Arrests and Repression: The arrest of company CEOs, Bouteflika's family members, and other influential figures, along with the repression of civil society, has fueled discontent and suspicion among Algerians.

11. Fear of Islamism and Corruption: The fear of Islamist parties has been used to justify authoritarian measures, but this strategy is losing traction as these parties consolidate their presence in the political landscape.

12. Impact on Investment and Stability: The ongoing political instability, combined with the state's aggressive response to the protests, is causing capital flight and discouraging foreign investment, impacting the country's economic stability.

In summary, the report underscores the profound challenges faced by Algeria in maintaining political stability amidst a powerful popular movement demanding significant reforms. The Algerian army's response to the protests, characterized by a perceived lack of concern for democratic processes and civil liberties, has further complicated the situation, raising concerns about the long-term prospects for peace, democracy, and economic prosperity in the country.