马里 ： 对法国发动政变 ？

《Mali: Coup Against France?》

Mali's recent coup, leading to the fall of President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta (IBK), reflects the failure of the international security strategy in the country. This coup, driven by public discontent, exacerbated the country's multiple crises, making it a key territory for the EU's efforts to combat terrorism and migration. The regime change appears to leave France and the West without a primary ally in the Sahel, but does it truly threaten their interests?

Mali remains among the world's most vulnerable countries, characterized by high levels of poverty. The northern regions continue to be beyond Bamako's control, and the proliferation of armed groups has escalated. This dire situation is a result of the government's incapacity, weakness, and ineptitude in handling various challenges. The coup can be attributed to several factors, including the appointment of IBK's son as head of the National Assembly's defense commission, which fueled nepotism and disconnected the elite from the people's suffering.

The government's actions, such as the alleged contribution to the militarization of Dogon militias responsible for communal killings, attempts at dialogue with extremist groups like Ansar Dine and the Macina Liberation Front, and the signing of the Algiers Peace Agreement with Tuareg insurgents, have further contributed to the crisis. These actions have led to a lack of implementation and have exacerbated tensions between the southern and northern regions, leading to suspicions of partitioning the country.

Past colonialism and current neocolonialism have imposed Jacobin state logics, privileged cattle-breeding communities over nomadic and pastoral ones, and taken an exclusive security-based approach to counter-terrorism, which is alien to local desires and contributes to escalating violence. The war in Libya, initiated by former French President Nicolas Sarkozy, destabilized the Sahel, spread arms, and facilitated the growth of secessionist and jihadist groups, contributing to the region's decline.

France, along with other global powers, maintains a significant military presence in Mali, with thousands of troops deployed to maintain stability and protect geostrategic and economic interests. The coup, however, appears to be a desperate attempt to replace local power structures using anti-French sentiment, potentially strengthening foreign influence in the region. Despite the change in leadership, the risk is that it might solidify foreign authority, threatening the stability of the region that has long suffered from various forms of violence.