Los Balcanes Occidentales, el largo y sinuoso camino hacia Europa

CIDOB notes internacionals 238, November 2020

The European Union (EU) plays a dual role in the Western Balkans region. This includes diplomacy alongside American efforts to promote peace in conflicts, such as in 2001 resolving the ethnic war in North Macedonia and then in 2006 preventing a clash between Montenegro and Serbia through a bilateral referendum. Currently, Brussels continues to support negotiations between Serbia and Kosovo to normalize relations. It also actively addresses high-intensity political tensions, like those in Albania between the government party and opposition.

The EU's attraction is significant in each Balkan country for the prospect of becoming part of the European political family. This has been crucial in influencing the region’s dynamics. However, this perspective is also a tool used by Brussels in its conflict resolution efforts. The region was named "Balcanes Occidentales" after the Dayton Accords in 1995 and the end of the war in Bosnia-Herzegovina, but it took over two decades for the Balkans to transition towards the EU, making it more of a permanent system rather than just a transitional phase toward democracy.

The allure of EU membership no longer corresponds to the same reasons as during the collapse of communism. It is no longer about joining the western free world dream. The reasons for what can be called Balkan Europhilia are different now.

The landscape after the Berlin Wall and Iron Curtain fell in summer 1989, Albania, in exile in a remote Albanian village, heard that the European Economic Community (now the EU) was focusing on Yugoslavia and Albania with economic aid for their future democratization. Yugoslavia seemed logically the first to join the western side due to its proximity to the West politically, diplomatically, economically, and culturally. Albania, seen as the last country to join the dream, surprisingly found itself in the same position as Yugoslavia after the war.

The region has been pacifying, partly due to the EU's active and attractive role, but with many past issues. In Bosnia-Herzegovina, the war ended with NATO intervention and the Dayton Accords in 1995, but the political solution was short-term and inefficient. The state is divided into two entities based on ethnic criteria, creating a situation where the warring parties are formally united in one state but divided internally. Bosnia is an unsustainable state due to its political arrangement rather than lack of resources or infrastructure. Its economy and society are in poor condition, and the general public, especially young people, have little hope for the future.

In Kosovo, after another NATO intervention, it separated from Serbia legally and economically. The legal basis for governance is based on UN envoy Martti Ahtisaari's proposals. The rights of the Serbian minority are strongly protected, though the interaction between Albanians and Serbs is scarce. While there has been some increase in Serbian political and administrative collaboration in Kosovo institutions, the two main ethnic groups live apart. Belgrade continues to stir ethnic tension in Kosovo, which declared independence in 2008 but hasn't gained full international recognition. Besides Serbia and Russia, some Western countries involved in the military intervention refuse to recognize Kosovo's independence. Corruption among political classes is also a significant issue in daily life.

In Serbia, after its last war, moderate nationalist Vojislav Koštunica defeated Slobodan Milošević, who was known for his nationalistic stance. This shows how the nation's attitude towards nationalism can influence political outcomes.

In summary, the EU's role in the Balkans has been significant, driving both peace efforts and the desire for EU membership, yet the path to full integration has been long and complex, influenced by historical, political, and social factors.