不仅仅是热情 ： 欧盟 ， 能源转型和《能源宪章条约》

CIDOB Opinion 647, December 2020, discusses the role of the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT) in facilitating the global energy transition. The ECT, established in 1994 and currently involving 53 countries including all EU Member States except Italy, aims to promote energy market liberalization, particularly in Eurasia post-USSR collapse. It balances state sovereignty over natural resources with foreign investment protection.

However, the European Commission's proposed modernization of the ECT is critiqued for focusing excessively on renewables' modern competitiveness, potentially overlooking the treaty's true potential to mobilize capital for the energy transition. The proposed reforms might either have a negligible impact or hinder the ECT's ability to attract investment, instead imposing new burdens on existing members.

The ECT's original purpose was to encourage energy market openness, particularly in Eurasia following the USSR's dissolution. It protects foreign investment in natural resources, offering compensation for actions like expropriation or substantial compromise of investor interests. This protection extends beyond direct resource exploitation to encompass a broad range of energy investments, including transmission networks, storage facilities, power generation plants, and renewable energy projects.

Critics argue that the Commission's push to eliminate fossil fuels from the ECT's investor protection provisions overlooks the plummeting costs of renewables. Utility-scale solar PV has decreased by 80% since 2010, and onshore wind has experienced a 40% decline in cost over the last decade. Given renewables' competitive pricing, global financial capital is increasingly directed towards renewable energy sources, making the market-driven shift away from fossil fuels unnecessary.

Moreover, the Commission's proposals fail to address the scale of investment needed for the energy transition. Estimates suggest a $27 trillion investment requirement over the next three decades to meet Paris Agreement targets. A sustainable development scenario aiming for a 2°C temperature rise necessitates a significant increase in clean energy investment, with the private sector expected to contribute approximately 70% of the total public-private investment.

Given the predominantly private nature of the capital required for the global energy transition, effective mechanisms to protect this capital are crucial. The ECT, as the sole multilateral investment agreement, has the potential to serve as a platform for such investments. With its current membership and potential for growth, the ECT could become a pivotal tool for the global energy transition. However, the Commission's reform proposals raise questions about their alignment with the goal of capital mobilization, suggesting they may inadvertently discourage additional states from joining the treaty.