纳瓦尔尼或普京政权不断扩大的裂缝

CIDOB Opinion 659, dated March 2021, delves into the widening cracks within Vladimir Putin's regime, particularly through the lens of the growing influence of opposition figure Alexei Navalny. The key points highlighted in the report include:

1. Floral Tributes and Protests: The number of flowers placed on the Bolshoy Moskvoretsky Bridge, where Boris Nemtsov was assassinated in 2015, has significantly increased in 2021, symbolizing a growing public sentiment of mourning for a democrat killed under the regime's watch, and a rejection of Navalny's imprisonment and the regime's overall policies.

2. Public Discontent: Poll data from the independent Levada Centre reveals that economic concerns such as rising prices, unemployment, and impoverishment are top issues among the Russian populace, indicating widespread dissatisfaction with the state of the economy and society.

3. Navalny's Role: Navalny's campaign against corruption in high-ranking officials has gained traction, contributing to his growing popularity and the intensity of public protests. His efforts to expose corruption serve as a catalyst for discontent and dissatisfaction with the regime.

4. Political Strategies and Challenges: Navalny's political career, marked by a blend of liberal, nationalist, and anti-corruption stances, presents a complex image. While his nationalist past complicates the Kremlin's ability to label him as a "foreign agent," it also offers a unique appeal to the Russian electorate. The Kremlin's response includes campaigns to discredit him, often orchestrated from within the regime's ranks.

5. Regime's Vulnerabilities: The report suggests that the regime's inability to address public concerns and renew itself is becoming a significant threat to its stability. The assassination attempt on Navalny underscores the regime's fragility rather than strengthening its hand against opposition.

6. Impact of Navalny's Return: The report highlights the potential positive impact of Navalny's return to Russia, despite the risks involved. His presence could further energize the opposition and gain popular sympathy, potentially boosting his political career and the momentum against the regime.

Overall, the report paints a picture of a regime struggling with deep-seated issues of economic stagnation, societal discontent, and the growing influence of a vocal opposition leader, Alexei Navalny, whose strategies and presence challenge the status quo and highlight the regime's vulnerabilities.