欧洲在利比亚的战略 ： 不安的讨价还价

CIDOB Opinion 671 discusses the complex dynamics of European and French involvement in Libya, particularly focusing on the strained relations between France and Italy, and the evolving roles of Turkey and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

The French intervention in 2011 to topple Colonel Gaddafi was pivotal, with President Nicolas Sarkozy's backing, but faced initial resistance from Italy and rejection by Germany. This event marked a significant fracture in the EU's foreign policy-making in a region crucial for its security. The rivalry between France and Italy, especially concerning Libya, echoes historical tensions dating back over a century.

In recent years, France appears to have pursued a dual strategy in Libya. While offering support to the internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli, it simultaneously backed Khalifa Haftar, an Eastern-based commander, with the UAE and Egypt. This policy is criticized for its perceived incoherence, partly due to President Emmanuel Macron's belief in Haftar's fight against hard-line Islamist groups in Libya.

The second reason for this contradictory stance can be attributed to France's broader policy in the Sahel and the Middle East, driven by counterterrorism efforts and an anti-Islamist obsession. This has led to animosity towards Turkey and a strategic partnership with the UAE, which includes lucrative arms deals. France has, inadvertently, turned into a diplomatic tool for the UAE's interests in Libya.

Since 2015, Italian governments have consistently supported the UN-led process and the GNA, even amidst sieges by Haftar's forces. The GNA's survival was aided by Turkey's military intervention, marking a significant shift in Turkey's role in Libya. French policy has seemingly elevated Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's influence in Libya, with the signing of a controversial defense deal and a maritime treaty that encroaches on Greek and Cyprus' interests.

The Italian Prime Minister, Mario Draghi, has worked to strengthen the unique partnership between Italy and Libya, despite the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change on commercial activities. His aim is to diversify the focus towards the gas sector and promote trade in infrastructure and healthcare, aligning with Libya's development needs.

The issue of migration remains a focal point, with Prime Minister Draghi advocating for a solution to the humanitarian crisis. However, progress has been limited. The evolving energy partnership between Italy and Libya could offer opportunities for Italian businesses and contribute to addressing Libya's energy demands, particularly in Asia.

The CIDOB Opinion highlights the need for a united approach between Italy and France, particularly through the leadership of Prime Minister Draghi and President Macron, to provide the EU with a strong diplomatic strategy in Libya. This collaboration could mitigate the influence of new and powerful actors, such as Turkey, and enhance the EU's role in resolving the Libyan crisis.