The text discusses the process of integration of the Western Balkans into the European Union (EU), focusing on Serbia's case. The EU initially offered a clear perspective for European integration for the region after the Yugoslav Wars, with specific support and "credible expansion prospects" for Serbia by 2018. However, despite these efforts, only Croatia has joined the EU since the cessation of hostilities two decades ago.
Serbia's application for EU membership began in 2009, but negotiations have been slow, seemingly stuck less than halfway through. This situation appears to suit Serbia's dominant elites, who see benefits from EU integration without fully applying its strict political and economic good governance requirements. This allows for continued capture of power and economic gains, while Serbia maintains a favorable climate for economic activity and investment.
Public opinion in Serbia has shown decreasing interest in EU membership, with only half supporting it in recent polls, and Serbia is the most Eurosceptic country in the region. Many Serbians view Kosovo as a symbol of Serbian nationalism, with a majority opposing its recognition. Serbia aligns closely with Russia and has deepened economic ties with China, positioning itself as an "equidistant player" akin to non-aligned nations during the Cold War.
Despite Serbia's stated willingness to integrate into the EU, it also fosters a nationalist, Eurosceptic mindset. Meanwhile, the EU shows increasing reluctance towards enlargement, particularly due to concerns over economic impacts, especially after Brexit. There is a growing resistance in key member states like the Netherlands and Denmark, and more broadly across the EU. The EU's focus seems to have shifted away from enlargement as a priority, amidst successive crises, especially economic ones.
Regarding Serbia specifically, the EU questions the dominance and abuse of power by the ruling party over state institutions, media, and freedom of expression. It also criticizes Serbia's lack of action against corruption and organized crime. The EU is hesitant to push forward with Serbia's integration, partly due to the unresolved conflict in Kosovo. Although not a formal requirement for EU entry, Kosovo recognition remains a sensitive issue that some member states might use as a condition for Serbia's accession.
In summary, Serbia's slow progress towards EU integration reflects broader challenges in the region's process of European integration. The EU's willingness to incorporate Serbia and other Western Balkan countries appears diminished, and both sides seem entrenched in their positions, leading to an "asymptotic approximation" of integration. The EU's potential to transform Serbia's dynamics through integration is weakened, and Serbia's relationship with Russia and growing economic ties with China introduce new stability risks for Europe.
