The escalation between Iran and Israel has led the Middle East into an uncertain territory, with both countries crossing a dangerous line by directly attacking each other's territory within two weeks. This marks a significant shift in their long-standing rivalry for regional leadership.
Israel initiated the conflict by targeting the Iranian consulate in Syria on April 1st, followed by Iran's retaliatory operation, "True Promise," on April 13th, which was described as the first direct attack by Iran on Israel since the Islamic Republic's establishment. This move breaks the traditional pattern of indirect confrontation and highlights the escalating tensions between the two nations.
Historically, Iran has leveraged regional conflicts to strengthen its alliances and influence, while Israel has benefited from economic, military, and technological dominance. The US's withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal in 2018 further isolated Iran, while the Abraham Accords in 2020 served to isolate Iran further by recognizing Israel's regional power among Arab states.
In recent years, both countries have faced off multiple times, with Israel accusing Iran of threatening its existence. Israel has employed various strategies such as military operations against Iranian assets, assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists, and attacks on Iranian military targets inside and outside the country. Meanwhile, Iran has pursued asymmetric warfare, supporting allies like Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthi rebels to undermine Israel.
The latest escalation, starting with the October 2023 attacks, has significantly intensified the rivalry. From Israel's perspective, these actions are a manifestation of Iran's asymmetric war strategy aimed at weakening it. This has also prompted Israel to seek a more regionalized conflict, targeting multiple objectives in Syria, Lebanon, and even aiming to invade Gaza.
Iran's response to the escalating conflict, particularly the "True Promise" operation, marks a new phase in the conflict dynamics. By asserting the right to directly retaliate if attacked, Iran seeks to disrupt Israel's strategy of deterrence. While this has provided some benefits for Iran, including exposing Israel's vulnerabilities and undermining the Abraham Accords, it has also raised domestic and international concerns for Israel, potentially leading to a collapse of the Netanyahu government.
Israel's recent strategy seems aimed at provoking a direct attack from Iran to divert attention from the critical situation in Gaza, challenge its growing isolation, and appease Israeli discontent towards Netanyahu's leadership and the ongoing conflict in the Strip. In the longer term, a regional war involving US intervention could allow Israel to settle scores with the leaders of the resistance axis.
Despite the unpredictability of the consequences, Israel appears to have achieved some short-term objectives. It hopes to secure US support for its invasion plans in Rafah and benefit from increased US military aid, despite political pressures to condition these supports. The US's role in any direct confrontation remains crucial, balancing historical alliance with Israel and maintaining regional stability. However, the US's official stance contrasts with its full support for Israel, ignoring calls for a ceasefire and providing unconditional military aid, despite allegations of genocide. This policy might lead to reconsideration of its implications for both Israeli and Palestinian populations.
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