阿富汗 “西方 ” 失败的根本原因

CIDOB Opinion 687 highlights the perceived failures of Euroamerican strategic thinking in Afghanistan, primarily due to inherent flaws in their ideological and conceptual foundations. This perspective is exemplified by historical instances where the Soviet Union and NATO attempted to implement enlightenment models of societal transformation - creating secular societies in Afghanistan and formalizing liberal democracy in Afghanistan respectively. However, these efforts were undermined by the inability to account for and respect the deeply rooted tribal and nationalistic structures within Afghan society.

The World Values Survey studies suggest that the divide between Euroamerican and non-Euroamerican societies lies in their differing priorities – Euroamerican societies prioritize secular-rational and self-expression values, while societies in the process of industrialization or pre-industrial societies prioritize survival and traditional values. This disparity contributes to a lack of mutual understanding and underscores the difficulty in justifying 'Realpolitik' strategies beyond the framework of national self-interest.

The document argues that from an 'amoral' perspective, the self-interests of different nations are inherently equal, making it challenging to justify superiority in strategic approaches. This critique questions the inherent justifiability of Euroamerican interests in comparison to those of other nations such as China, Russia, and Afghanistan.

The author suggests that a better understanding of tribal cultures, akin to those outlined in the Pancatantra and the Muqaddimah by Ibn Khaldun, could have mitigated errors made during the invasion of Afghanistan. These texts emphasize alliance-based strategies and the cyclical patterns of rise and fall of regimes, suggesting that understanding the dynamics of tribal societies and their unifying identities could have provided a more nuanced approach to conflict resolution.

In summary, CIDOB Opinion 687 argues for a reconsideration of Euroamerican strategies in Afghanistan, advocating for a deeper understanding of tribal cultures and historical perspectives on the dynamics of power and societal structures.