普京对乌克兰的 “红线 ” ： 对欧洲和跨大西洋决心的新考验

CIDOB Opinion 702, published in December 2021, discusses the escalating tension between Russia and Ukraine, particularly concerning Russia's military buildup around Ukraine. Key points from the document include:

1. Current Military Buildup: This is seen as more serious than previous ones, creating uncertainty about Russia's intentions and raising fears of an imminent invasion. US intelligence suggests that Russia might launch a multi-front offensive involving up to 175,000 troops as early as January 2022.

2. Tensions and Policy Decisions: Several decisions made by the United States have heightened Russia's alertness, notably the deployment of military aid to Ukraine, which includes equipment like patrol boats, counter-artillery radars, and satellite imagery capabilities. This has been a point of contention with Russia, who views such actions as crossing a 'red line' and triggering a strong response.

3. NATO's Role and Response: NATO has responded by supporting Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity, warning of serious consequences if Russia were to invade. This includes threats of high-impact economic measures. However, these steps have not alleviated the crisis.

4. Historical Context and Future Concerns: The document highlights that the current situation follows a series of policy decisions by the US aimed at stabilizing relations with Russia. This included extending the New START Treaty, which was seen as a positive step, but was followed by increased military aid to Ukraine, leading to heightened tensions.

5. NATO and Russia Relations: The NATO Summit in June reaffirmed Ukraine's path towards NATO membership, though without specifying a timeline. This has further strained relations, especially considering Russia's concerns over the strengthening of Ukraine's defense systems and their interoperability with NATO.

6. Economic Influence: Natural gas shortages and price hikes in Europe have been cited as factors influencing Russia's stance. As a major supplier of Europe's gas imports, Russia holds significant leverage, which could be used to exert pressure on European leaders.

7. Guarantees and Negotiations: Russia seeks assurances that Ukraine will not join NATO, even indirectly. The document suggests that any agreement between the US and Russia should focus on avoiding a return to a missile crisis and potentially restarting strategic stability talks, arms control agreements, and addressing Russia's security concerns over Ukraine.

In conclusion, the document underscores the complex geopolitical situation, emphasizing the growing tension and the potential for conflict, while suggesting avenues for diplomatic resolution that prioritize stability and de-escalation.