从格拉斯哥到 Sham El - Sheikh （ COP27 ） ： 如何提高气候雄心

CIDOB notes internacionals 267. February 2022

The historical narrative of climate politics underscores a fundamental trade-off: the more ambitious the international climate agreement's mitigation goals, the less likely states are to ratify it. This is illustrated by the contrasting approaches of the Kyoto Protocol (1997) and the Paris Agreement (2015). The latter was more inclusive due to the lessons learned from the former's failure to rally UN parties, especially key states like the United States, which never ratified it.

The Glasgow Climate Pact from COP26 aimed to strike a balance between ambition and inclusivity, though it faced criticism for lacking ambition and decisiveness. The pact highlighted a significant gap between the necessary 45% reduction in emissions by 2030 (compared to 2010 levels) to achieve the 1.5°C goal and the 16.3% increase implied by Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) communicated by the parties.

While some political achievements were made at COP26, such as the Global Methane Pledge, the Glasgow Leaders' Declaration on Forests and Land Use, and the US-China Joint Glasgow Declaration, these agreements lack legal force and were watered down. The most notable achievement regarding phasing out unabated coal power was softened due to India's intervention, illustrating the challenges in achieving ambitious targets.

The Glasgow Climate Pact included requests for greater ambition at COP27, to be held in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, emphasizing the need for all countries to raise their ambition and commit to a one-year NDC review process.

Different actors perceive "climate ambition" differently, reflecting overlapping yet contradictory understandings. Western governments, particularly the United Kingdom, European Union, and the United States, present themselves as the most ambitious based on their NDCs. Their ambition aligns with reconciling environmental sustainability with continuous socio-economic growth, believing the transition to climate neutrality will stimulate economic growth, job creation, and technological advancement.

This optimistic view, however, faces challenges. While the EU's climate strategy, the European Green Deal, aims to transform the EU into a carbon-neutral society by 2050, efforts focus on accelerating a clean energy transition, implementing circular and blue economy action plans, and developing smart infrastructures for carbon capture and storage. The COVID-19 recovery plans are aligned with the EU's climate targets and aim for carbon neutrality by 2050.

This approach can be seen as a "green growth" strategy, inspired by ecomodernist thinkers who believe technological and social modernization can decouple universal human development from environmental impact. Ecomodernists advocate for market-driven strategies, emphasizing collaboration between the private and public sectors to accelerate the green transition. This perspective contrasts with the need for collective action and political will to bridge the gap between current commitments and the necessary 1.5°C goal, underscoring the importance of understanding and aligning diverse approaches to climate ambition for COP27.