Elecciones en Francia, guerra en Europa

The report "CIDOB notes internacionals 270. Abril 2022" discusses the upcoming presidential elections in France, which are taking place against a backdrop of global pandemic and ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The incumbent president, Emmanuel Macron, is facing significant challenges to his re-election bid, with the main obstacle being voter abstention. Despite strong polling that indicates a second round duel between Macron and Marine Le Pen, the current president faces a deep economic and political discontent in France, particularly from those who feel their country is in decline.

Macron's five-year presidency has been marked by the Yellow Vest protests and now faces new challenges, such as an energy crisis and inflationary pressures that threaten the most vulnerable sectors of society. In a fragmented political landscape, Macron's personal leadership style has created new divides, notably between the president and peripheral regions of France. His international agenda has also made him a key player in the diplomatic conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

The report identifies four major questions regarding this exceptional campaign: Macron's political capital for re-election, how the battle for the far-right will unfold, the impact of the international context on the election, and the state of the left. It highlights that while Macron maintains a lead in opinion polls, the erosion of his mobilization capacity and the weakening of the vote useful to counter the far right are concerns.

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia has disrupted the French presidential campaign, with two rounds scheduled for April 10th and 24th. While Macron's position seems secure for now, the long-term impact of his leadership style and the potential for voter disillusionment with political elites remains uncertain.

Macron's strong stance in international affairs has bolstered his leadership, but also deepened economic discontent and widened the gap between him and a significant portion of the electorate. Social anger over the governance of France, coupled with rising economic disparities, despite official employment and job growth statistics, continue to simmer beneath the surface.

The report also addresses Macron's positioning as a negotiator-in-chief. In the past few months, he has engaged in numerous high-level diplomatic activities, including phone calls with Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelenskiy, as well as coordinating sanctions with EU counterparts. This foreign policy activity has served as a substitute for traditional campaigning, reinforcing Macron's position in Europe as the primary stage for his power projection and leadership ambitions. Despite failing to prevent the Russian invasion, Putin's actions have bolstered Macron's position while potentially alienating leaders traditionally aligned with Russian President Putin.

Macron's vision for the Union includes reviving the concept of power associated with the EU, as exemplified by his speech at the Sorbonne in 2017 and during the presentation of his priorities for the EU presidency in January. This vision has been reinforced by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which has strengthened some of the foundational pillars of Macron's EU perspective.