The Russian invasion of Ukraine has significantly accelerated the geopolitical unity of Europe. This transformation is heavily influenced by the political shift in Germany, where the new government under Chancellor Olaf Scholz halted the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project, excluded Russia from the SWIFT international payment system, and allowed German-made arms sales to Ukraine. This move marks a rapid review of Germany's foreign policy legacy under Angela Merkel.
Spain's government also took a significant turn after seven days of bombings, announcing the supply of arms to Ukraine through the European mechanism, despite facing a crisis within its coalition government with Podemos. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which had been trying to adapt to a post-Cold War world, now finds itself with a renewed purpose due to Putin's aggression.
Finland and Sweden, both bordering Russia, have opened political debates about potential NATO membership, marking the end of the Finnish model of neutrality during the Cold War. This could redefine strategies for disengagement in the face of the ongoing conflict.
In this context, the EU has strengthened its economic and political sanctions against Russia, including the inclusion of Vladimir Putin and Sergey Lavrov on the list of sanctioned individuals. The EU has also created a coordination cell in Brussels for purchasing arms requested by Ukraine and financing some of these purchases through the EU budget.
Furthermore, the EU Parliament voted to grant Ukraine candidate status, a symbolic gesture that accelerates the process but may cause frustration among Ukrainian public who have long advocated for closer ties with the EU. This resolution also strengthens President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's position as the unexpected hero of Ukraine's resistance.
The effects of the invasion of Ukraine have reinforced the EU's resolve, potentially increasing pressure on Russia and Putin. However, as the war drags on, it may also lead to growing discontent among the Russian population, posing additional risks for Putin's survival and objectives. The EU, having reacted and strengthened its stance, should now anticipate and mitigate future steps from the Russian leader.
