BOC央行数字货币和银行业务选择

StaffWorkingPaper/Documentdetravaildupersonnel—2024-4 Lastupdated:February8,2024 CentralBankDigitalCurrencyandBankingChoices byJiaqiLi,1AndrewUsher1andYuZhu2 1BankingandPaymentsDepartmentBankofCanada jiaqili@bankofcanada.ca,AUsher@bankofcanada.ca 2RenminUniversityofChinazhuyuzlf57@gmail.com BankofCanadastaffworkingpapersprovideaforumforstafftopublishwork-in-progressresearchindependentlyfromtheBank’sGoverningCouncil.Thisresearchmaysupportorchallengeprevailingpolicyorthodoxy.Therefore,theviewsexpressedinthispaperaresolelythoseoftheauthorsandmaydifferfromofficialBankofCanadaviews.NoresponsibilityforthemshouldbeattributedtotheBank. DOI:https://doi.org/10.34989/swp-2024-4|ISSN1701-9397©2024BankofCanada Acknowledgements WethankJasonAllen,MatteoBenetton,JonathanChiu,RobertClark,RodGarratt,CharlesKahn,AnnekeKosse,MarianaLaverde,YoumingLiu,ChristineParlour,NunoPaixao,NicolaPavanini,HectorPerez-Saiz,FranciscoRivadeneyra,EnchuanShao,RobertTownsend,StephenWilliamson,andYufengWufortheinsightfulsuggestions.WethankJeffreyWuforexcellentresearchassistanceinverifyingthebranchlocationandgeocodingvariouslocationdatasets.Wethankseminarparticipantsatthe2023CentreforEconomicPolicyResearch(CEPR)—EuropeanCentralBank’sMacroeconomicImplicationsofCentralBankDigitalCurrenciesconference;the2ndConferenceontheEconomicsofCentralBankDigitalCurrencyhostedbytheBankofCanadaandSverigesRiksbank;EconomicsofPaymentsXIIConferencehostedbytheFederalReserveBoard;theEuropeanEconomicAssociation’s2023AnnualConference;theEuropeanAssociationforResearchinIndustrialEconomics2023AnnualConference;the2023SummerWorkshoponMoney,Banking,Payments,andFinance;theSocietyforEconomicDynamics2023Meeting;the1stAnnualConferenceoftheBancoCentraldoBrasil;theSocietyforEconomicMeasurement2023AnnualConference;theInternationalAssociationforAppliedEconometrics2023AnnualConference;the2023InternationalIndustrialOrganizationConference;CanadianEconomicsAssociation’s2022AnnualConference;the2022TokenomicsConference;andvariousseminarsattheInternationalMonetaryFund,CentralBankofBrazil,BankofCanada,andtheUniversityofSaskatchewan.TheviewsexpressedinthispaperarethoseoftheauthorsandnotnecessarilytheviewsoftheBankofCanada.YuZhuacknowledgesthesupportfromtheNaturalScienceFoundationofChina,Grantno.72192801. Abstract Towhatextentdoesacentralbankdigitalcurrency(CBDC)competewithbankdeposits?Toanswerthisquestion,wedevelopandestimateastructuralmodelwhereeachhouseholdchooseswhichfinancialinstitutiontodeposittheirdigitalmoneywith.Householdsvaluetheinterestpaidondigitalmoney,thepossibilityofobtainingcomplementaryfinancialproducts,andtheaccesstoin-branchservices.Anon-interest-bearingCBDCthatdoesnotprovidecomplementaryfinancialproductscansubstantiallycrowdoutbankdepositsonlyifitprovidesanextensiveservicenetwork.ImposingalargelimitonCBDCholdingwouldeffectivelymitigatethiscrowdingout. Topics:Centralbankresearch;DigitalcurrenciesandfintechJELcodes:E50,E58 Résumé Dansquellemesureunemonnaienumériquedebanquecentrale(MNBC)concurrence-t-ellelesdépôtsbancaires?Pourrépondreàcettequestion,nousélaboronsetestimonsunmodèlestructureldanslequelchaqueménagechoisitl’institutionfinancièreoùdéposersonargentnumérique.Lesménagesévaluentlesintérêtsservissurl’argentnumérique,lapossibilitéd’obtenirdesproduitsfinancierscomplémentairesetl’accèsauxservicesensuccursale.UneMNBCneportantpasintérêtetnonassortiedeproduitsfinancierscomplémentairesnepeutévincerdansunelargemesurelesdépôtsbancairesquesielleestassociéeàunréseaudeservicesétendu.L’impositiond’unelimiteélevéeàladétentiondeMNBCatténueraitefficacementceteffetd’éviction. Sujets:Recherchesmenéesparlesbanquescentrales,Monnaiesnumériquesettechnologiesfinancières CodesJEL:E50,E58 1Introduction Manycentralbanksareconsideringissuingaretailcentralbankdigitalcurrency(CBDC),adigitalformofcentralbankmoneythatisavailabletothegeneralpublicandcanbeusedforretailtransactions.1ByofferingthepublictheoptiontoholdthedigitalmoneyinaCBDCinsteadofbankdeposits,theCBDCwoulddirectlycompetewithbankdepositsinthemarketfordigitalmoney.Asaconsequence,thereareconcernsthataCBDCcouldsubstantiallycrowdoutbankdeposits,whichmayunderminefinancialstabilitybyraisingthefundingcostandreducingtheprofitabilityofthebankingsector.However,littleisknownaboutthepotentialmagnitudeoftheCBDCadoptionanditscrowdingouteffectonbankdeposits. ThekeytoaddressingthisquestionistounderstandhowaCBDCwoulddifferfrombankdeposits.ThispaperquantifiestheimpactofaCBDConbanksinthedepositmarket,takingintoaccounttwokeydifferentiatingfeaturesbetweenaCBDCandbankdeposits:(i)banksprovideproductscomplementarytodeposits,suchasmortgagesandcreditcards,2whileaCBDCwouldlikelybeastand-alonecentralbankproduct;(ii)mostbankshaveextensivebranchnetworksforin-personservice,whiledependingonthedesign,theservicelocationnetworkofaCBDCcanbeverydifferentfrombanks’branchnetworks.Forexample,aCBDCcanbedesignedtobeentirelydigitalwithnophysicalbranch,oritcanbedesignedtohaveanetworkofbrancheslikebanks. IncorporatingthesetwofeaturesisimportantforstudyingthecrowdingouteffectsofaCBD