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Distributional Impacts of Heterogenous Carbon Prices in the EU

2024-07-12IMF陈***

DistributionalImpactsofHeterogenousCarbonPricesintheEU MagnusMerkle,GeoffroyDolphinWP/24/149 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate. TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. 2024 JUL ©2024InternationalMonetaryFundWP/24/149 IMFWorkingPaper EuropeanDepartment DistributionalImpactsofHeterogenousCarbonPricesintheEUPreparedbyMagnusMerkleandGeoffroyDolphin* AuthorizedfordistributionbyRomainDuvalJuly2024 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. ABSTRACT:WeanalysetheconsequencesofcarbonpriceheterogeneityonhouseholdsinTheEUfrom2010to2020.Accountingforbothheterogeneityincarbonpricingacrossemissionsourcesandtheindirecteffectsfrominter-industrylinkages,weobtaintwokeyfindings.First,duetowidespreadcarbonpricingexemptions,householdburdensarelowerthanpreviouslyestimated.Second,lower-incomegroupsareaffecteddisproportionately,becausetheyspendasmallershareoftheirexpenditureonproductsthatbenefitfromexemptionsthantheirhigher-incomecounterparts.Therefore,imposinguniformcarbonpricesbothwithinandacrosscountrieswouldreducecarbonpricingregressivityonhouseholdexpenditureintheEU.Aglobalpricewouldbemosteffectiveinthisregard,asitwouldraisecarbonpricesembodiedinEUimports.Further,becauseEUeconomiesareopenandapplyhigheraveragecarbonpricesthantheirtradepartners,thedomesticrevenuesexceedthecostsembodiedinEUhouseholdconsumptionsbundles.Thisincreasesthescopeforreducingtheburdenofcarbonpricingonlower-incomehouseholdsthroughrevenueredistribution. OurresultsimplythattheongoingextensionofcarbonpricingtomoresectorsthroughtheEUETSIIandtheintroductionoftheEU’sCBAMshouldmakecarbonpricinglessregressive,allelseequal. RECOMMENDEDCITATION:[StartTypingHere] JELClassificationNumbers: H22,H31,Q52,Q56,Q58 Keywords: Carbonpricing;taxincidence;climatepolicy Author’sE-MailAddress: magnus.merkle@nmbu.no;gdolphin@imf.org *TheauthorswouldliketothankDallasBurtraw,StephanDanninger,RomainDuval,EirikRomstad,andKnutEinarRosendahlfortheirhelpfulcomments.TheresearchhasbenefitedfrombrownbagdiscussionsattheIMF(EuropeanDepartment,August2023)andtheNorwegianUniversityofLifeSciences(ClimateResourcesEnergyandEnvironmentResearchGroup,October2023).TheauthorsarealsoindebtedtoMengyuLiandManfredLenzenfortheirguidanceontheGLORIAdatasetandforfeedbackonsomemethodologicalsteps.TheauthorsaregratefultoSimonFeindtandJeroenvandenBerghfordiscussingpreliminaryresults. WORKINGPAPERS DistributionalImpactsofHeterogenousCarbonPricesintheEU PreparedbyMagnusMerkleandGeoffroyDolphin1 1TheauthorswouldliketothankDallasBurtraw,StephanDanninger,RomainDuval,EirikRomstad,andKnutEinarRosendahlfortheirhelpfulcomments.TheresearchhasbenefitedfrombrownbagdiscussionsattheIMF(EuropeanDepartment,August2023)andtheNorwegianUniversityofLifeSciences(ClimateResourcesEnergyandEnvironmentResearchGroup,October2023).TheauthorsarealsoindebtedtoMengyuLiandManfredLenzenfortheirguidanceontheGLORIAdatasetandforfeedbackonsomemethodologicalsteps.TheauthorsaregratefultoSimonFeindtandJeroenvandenBerghfordiscussingpreliminaryresults. Contents Glossary4 ExecutiveSummary5 Introduction6 LiteratureReview7 Data&Method10 MatchingofData10 HouseholdIncidence11 DistributionalIndicators14 StructuralDecompositionofIncidenceFactors14 ScenarioSimulation15 Results16 HeterogenousCarbonPriceIncidence16 TemporalDecompositionofIncidence18 IncidenceImpactsofUniformPrices19 RevenueRecycling23 Discussion24 Conclusion26 AnnexI:MatchingWCPDandGLORIA28 ProcedureDescription28 Code28 Checkplots28 PanelPlots202030 AnnexII:MatchingHBSDatawithGLORIA35 Introduction35 MatchingofHouseholdSatellites39 Code39 AnnexIII:StructuralDecomposition40 Description40 Code41 AnnexIV:RegressivityCorrelations42 Introduction42 Code42 RegressivityintheBaseline42 RegressivityChangesinAlternativeScenarios45 FIGURES Figure1:Averagev.HighestCarbonPriceAcrossCountries11 Figure2:CarbonPriceIncidencebyIncomeDecile,202017 Figure3:CarbonPricingIncidenceonHouseholdGroups,AverageAcrossEUCountries18 Figure4:ClimatePolicyImpactonHouseholdQuantiles,VariationAcrossEUCountries19 Figure5:ClimatePolicyImpactonHouseholdQuantiles,VariationAcrossEUCountries20 Figure6:PricePaidforCarbon21 Figure7:Disaggregatedhouseholdincidenceofcarbonpricing22 Figure8:HouseholdIncidenceinUniformizationScenarios24 TABLES Table1:HBScountriesandwaveswithnon-missingdatainthescientific-usefiles11 Table2:Scenarios16 Table3:Explainingscenariodifferencesacrosscountries23 Glossary CBAM CarbonBorderAdjustmentMechanism COICOP ClassificationofIndividualConsumptionAccordingtoPurpose EU EuropeanUnion EUETS EuropeanUnionEmissionsTradingSystem GLORIA GlobalResourcesInput-OutputAssessment IDA IndexDecompositionAnalysis IMFCPF InternationalMonetaryFundCarbonPriceFloo

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