生活水平

ArnabBhattacharjee,AdrianPabstandRobynSmith LivingStandards NIESRGeneralElectionBriefingMay2024 AbouttheNationalInstituteofEconomicandSocialResearch TheNationalInstituteofEconomicandSocialResearchisBritain'slongestestablishedindependentresearchinstitute,foundedin1938.Thevisionofourfounderswastocarryoutresearchtoimproveunderstandingoftheeconomicandsocialforcesthataffectpeople’slives,andthewaysinwhichpolicycanbringaboutchange.Overeightyyearslater,thisremainscentraltoNIESR’sethos.Wecontinuetoapplyourexpertiseinbothquantitativeandqualitativemethodsandourunderstandingofeconomicandsocialissuestocurrentdebatesandtoinfluencepolicy.TheInstituteisindependentofallparty-politicalinterests. NuffieldFoundation WearegratefultotheNuffieldFoundationfortheirsupportinfundingthiswork.TheNuffieldFoundationisanindependentcharitabletrustwithamissiontoadvanceeducationalopportunityandsocialwellbeing.Itfundsresearchthatinformssocialpolicy,primarilyineducation,welfareandjustice.TheNuffieldFoundationisthefounderandco-funderoftheNuffieldCouncilonBioethics,theNuffieldFamilyJusticeObservatoryandtheAdaLovelaceInstitute. NationalInstituteofEconomicandSocialResearch2DeanTrenchSt LondonSW1P3HE T:+44(0)2072227665 E:enquiries@niesr.ac.ukniesr.ac.uk Registeredcharityno.306083 ThisbriefingwasfirstpublishedinMay2024 ©NationalInstituteofEconomicandSocialResearch2024 Contents Overview2 KeyPoints2 LivingStandardsSince20193 CostofLiving,Rents/BorrowingsandLivingStandards4 EffectsofBenefits7 PolicyRecommendationstoBoostLivingStandards11 Welfare12 WorkandWages12 Energy13 IncomeTaxandNationalInsuranceContributions14 Conclusion14 RecentNIESRWorkonLivingStandards16 OVERVIEW Thisbriefingfocuseson: theevolutionoflivingstandardssincethelastelectioninDecember2019. policyrecommendationstoraiselivingstandardstotheirpre-pandemiclevelsandbeyond. KEYPOINTS Livingstandards–asmeasuredbyhouseholdrealdisposableincomeaccountingforhouseholdcompositionandhousingcosts–havefallenbysome7percentonaverageacrossthedistributionrelativeto2019. Thisfallinlivingstandardshashitthebottomhalfoftheincomedistributionhardest:forthepoorest10percentofhouseholds,livingstandardsarelowerbyaround20percentcomparedwith2019-20levels;forincomedeciles2-4,thefallinlivingstandardsisonaveragearound8percent. Forthepoorest10percentofhouseholds,thismeansanincomeshortfallofsome£4,600(incurrentprices)in2024-25relativeto2019-2020. Weprojectthatthelivingstandardsofhouseholdsinthebottom40percentofthepopulation(earninguptoabout£34,000peryear)willnotreturntopre-pandemiclevelsbeforeApril2028. Thisfallisdespitelivingstandardsimprovingonaverageby6percentin2024- 25relativeto2023-24,butevenforthisrisetherearedistributionaldifferences:householdsinthebottomdecilewillexperiencea2percentfall,andthoseintheseconddecilea5percentrise,whilehouseholdsindeciles4-9willseea7-8percentriseintheirdisposableincomes. Targetedwelfaresupport,suchastheupliftinUniversalCreditandtheriseintheminimumwage,iscriticalintheshorttermtomitigatethehardshipofthepoorest,butpoliciestopromotegrowthandproductivityareindispensableforlongertermprosperity. LivingStandardsSince2019 Whileaggregaterealpersonaldisposableincomeroseby2.2percentin2023andisprojectedtoriseby2.8percentin2024,costsrelatedtohousing(rentsandmortgagerates)havealsoincreasedsignificantly,wipingoutthegainsfromrealwagegrowth. Livingstandards–measuredbyequivalisedhouseholdrealdisposableincome(eHRDI),whichispersonaldisposableincomeadjustedforhouseholdcomposition,inflation,andhousingcosts1–havefallenby7percentsincethepreviouselectioninDecember2019. Householdsinthebottomhalfoftheincomedistributionhavebornethebruntofthisfall,withthehouseholdsinthelowestincomedecile(pooresttenthofthepopulation)facinganincomeshortfallofsome£4,600in2024-25comparedwithDecember2019levelsupratedbyinflation. Takentogetheroverthefiveyears(2020-21to2024-25),realhouseholddisposableincomesafterhousingcostsinthebottomtwodecileshavedroppedbyover£15,000(table1). Theincomeshockhasbeencushionedbyacombinationof(i)theUniversalCredituplift,(ii)theriseintheNationalMinimumWage(NMW)andtheNationalLivingWage(NLW)and(iii)changesinratesandtaxes,togetheraccountingforabout £2,500onaverage;butthisstillleaveslivingstandardsinthesetwodecileslowerbyabout£12,500overtheparliamentaryterm. Table1showshowthecost-of-livingcrisisledtolowerlivingstandards;thelossofincomeasaproportionofhouseholds’“potential”disposableincome(i.e.whatdisposableincomewouldhavebeenifitroseatthesamerateasinflation,therebyleavinglivingstandardsstable)showsasimilardropacrossthedistributionofhouseholds. Table1:Cumulativeincomeshortfallperincomedecile(2024-25relativeto2020-20). FallingHHdispincome(HBAI) Bottomdecile Decile2 Decile3 Decile4 Decile5 Decile6 Decile7 Decile8 Decile9 Topdecile Average Cumulativeincomeloss -£14,915 -£15,519 -£10,524 -£6,032 -£1,834 -£2,759 -£3,585 -£5,211 -£7,385 -£19,466 -£8,723 UCuplift £1,462 £768 £251 £121 £57 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £266 NLW/NMW £92 £2,214 £1,083 £54 £3 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £345 Taxes&rates £74 £44 £254 £363 £516 £719 £825