阿根廷国家经济备忘录：新的增长前景改善财政政策、开放市场和人力资本投资（英）2024

PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized ARGENTINACOUNTRYECONOMICMEMORANDUM PublicDisclosureAuthorized Anewgrowthhorion PublicDisclosureAuthorized Improvefiscalpolicy,openmarkets,andinvestinhumancapital ©2024TheWorldBankGroup 1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433 Telephone:202-473-1000;Internet:www.worldbank.org ThisworkisaproductofthestaffofTheWorldBankGroupwithexternalcontributions.“TheWorldBankGroup”referstothelegallyseparateorganizationsoftheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment(IBRD),theInternationalDevelopmentAssociation(IDA),theInternationalFinanceCorporation(IFC),andtheMultilateralInvestmentGuaranteeAgency(MIGA). TheWorldBankGroupdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracy,reliabilityorcompletenessofthecontentincludedinthiswork,ortheconclusionsorjudgmentsdescribedherein,andacceptsnoresponsibilityorliabilityforanyomissionsorerrors(including,withoutlimitation,typographicalerrorsandtechnicalerrors)inthecontentwhatsoeverorforreliancethereon.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartoftheWorldBankGroupconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisvolumedonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheorganizationsoftheWorldBankGroup,theirrespectiveBoardsofExecutiveDirectors,andthegovernmentstheyrepresent. Thecontentsofthisworkareintendedforgeneralinformationalpurposesonlyandarenotintendedtoconstitutelegal,securities,orinvestmentadvice,anopinionregardingtheappropriatenessofanyinvestment,orasolicitationofanytype.SomeoftheorganizationsoftheWorldBankGrouportheiraffiliatesmayhaveaninvestmentin,provideotheradviceorservicesto,orotherwisehaveafinancialinterestin,certainofthecompaniesandpartiesnamedherein.NothinghereinshallconstituteorbeconstruedorconsideredtobealimitationuponorwaiveroftheprivilegesandimmunitiesofanyoftheorganizationsofTheWorldBankGroup,allofwhicharespecificallyreserved. RightsandPermissions Thematerialinthisworkissubjecttocopyright.BecauseTheWorldBankGroupencouragesdisseminationofitsknowledge,thisworkmaybereproduced,inwholeorinpart,fornoncommercialpurposesaslongasfullattributiontothisworkisgivenandallfurtherpermissionsthatmayberequiredforsuchuse(asnotedherein)areacquired.TheWorldBankGroupdoesnotwarrantthatthecontentcontainedinthisworkwillnotinfringeontherightsofthirdparties,andacceptsnoresponsibilityorliabilityinthisregard. AllqueriesonrightsandlicensesshouldbeaddressedtoWorldBankPublications,TheWorldBankGroup,1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433,USA;e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org. COUNTRYECONOMICMEMORANDUM Anewgrowthhorizon Improvefiscalpolicy,openmarkets,andinvestinhumancapital November2023 Contents Acknowledgmentsvii ExecutiveSummary1 Abbreviations11 1AnOverviewofArgentina’sEconomicPerformance14 1.1.Growthhasstalled14 1.2.Macroeconomicvolatility,influencedbyaprocyclicalfiscalpolicy,constrainsgrowth20 1.3.Publicpolicyconstrainsprivateinvestment,hinderinggrowth26 1.4.Argentinahasdecoupledemissionsfromgrowth,butemissionsintensityisachallenge37 1.5.Policyrecommendations40 References42 2EnhancingTradeIntegrationforCompetitivenessandGrowth44 2.1.Exportperformanceisdisappointing44 2.2.TradecostsandfrictionslimitArgentina’sexportpotential50 2.3.Towardsagradualprocessoftradeintegration61 2.4.Policyrecommendations74 References77 3UpgradingandUsingHumanCapitalforInclusiveGrowth83 3.1.Thelabormarketischaracterizedbyincreasinglevelsofprecariousness, lowproductivity,andmodestskilllevels83 3.2.Thefutureofworkischangingthedemandforskills88 3.3.Argentina’shumancapitalneedstoadapttothechangingworldofwork93 3.4.Policyrecommendations105 References110 4BiotechnologyandAutomobiles 4.1.Biotechnology:Drivenbyscientificexcellencebutconstrainedbyanemergingskillmismatch116 4.2.Automobiles:Longindustrialtraditionweakenedbymacroeconomicinstability anddistortivetradepolicy129 References135 ListofFigures Figure1 Argentina’sincomeisincreasinglyfallingbehindhigh-incomeeconomies 2 Figure2 Highfiscalprocyclicalityisfuelingmacroeconomicvolatility 3 Figure3 Argentinahasoneofthelargestpublicsectors 4 Figure4 Thenumberofexportershasdeclinedsinceitspeakin2006 5 Figure5 Argentinahaslostmarketsharesininternationalmarketsinallsectors(2012-19) 6 Figure6 HumancapitalisthemostimportantcomponentofArgentina’stotalnationalwealth 8 Figure1.1 Argentina’sGDPisdivergingfromthehighest-incomecountries… 16 Figure1.3 Argentinahasseenthemostyearsofrecessionintheworld 16 Figure1.2 ...anditsgrowthdynamicsareweakerthanmostpeers 16 Figure1.4 Argentinaisamongthetopcountriesforitshumandevelopment 17 Figure1.5 Thereisahighvariationofincomeacrossprovinces 18 Figure1.6 Poorerregions’laborproductivityiscatchingupwithfalteringricherregions 18 Figure1.7 Argentina’sworkersareconcentratedinlowproductivitysectors 19 Figure1.8 GainsinGDPpercapitacamefromemploymentgrowth,notlaborproductivity 19 Figure1.9 Growthisexplainedbylaborandcapitalaccumulation 20 Figure1.10 Totalfactorproductivityhasstagnated 20 Figure1.11Figu