火上浇油：2024天气冲击如何加剧冲突报告

AddingFueltotheFire:HowWeatherShocksIntensifyConflict SidraRehmanandLauraJaramillo WP/24/112 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate. TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. 2024 JUN ©2024InternationalMonetaryFundWP/24/112 IMFWorkingPaper MiddleEastandCentralAsiaDepartment AddingFueltotheFire:HowWeatherShocksIntensifyConflictPreparedbySidraRehmanandLauraJaramillo* AuthorizedfordistributionbyLauraJaramillo June2024 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. ABSTRACT:Doweathershocksworsenconflictaroundtheworld?Toanswerthisquestion,thispaperusesaninnovativedatasetcreatedbyusinggeoreferencingtomatchweatherandconflictdataatthesubregionallevelonamonthlyfrequencyacross168countriesover2013to2022.Theempiricalresultsshowthathighertemperatureexacerbateconflictwhereitalreadyexists.Estimationsindicatethat,inahighemissionsscenarioandallelseequal,by2060conflictdeathsasashareofthepopulationforamediancountryfacingconflictcouldincreaseby12.3percentduetorisingtemperatures.Thesefindingsunderscoretheimportanceofintegratingclimateresilienceintopeaceandsecurityeffortsanddesigningclimateadaptationpoliciesthatsupportconflictpreventionandresolution. RECOMMENDEDCITATION:Rehman,SidraandLauraJaramillo.2024.“AddingFueltotheFire:HowWeatherShocksIntensifyConflict”,IMFWorkingPaperNo.24/112. JELClassificationNumbers: I3,O1,P48,Q51,Q54 Keywords: conflict;temperature;precipitation;climatechange Author’sE-MailAddress: srehman@imf.org;ljaramillomayor@imf.org. *“Theauthor(s)wouldliketothank”footnote,asapplicable. WORKINGPAPERS AddingFueltotheFire:HowWeatherShocksIntensifyConflict PreparedbySidraRehmanandLauraJaramillo1 1ThispaperexpandsanalysisdiscussedinIMFStaffClimateNote2023/001on“ClimateChallengesinFragileandConflict-AffectedStates”.WewouldliketothankJihadAzour,AlionaCebotari,YoroDiallo,RheaGupta,RahimKanani,TalineKoranchelian,YugoKoshima,RoseKouwenhoven,ChandanaKularatne,JeongDaeLee,EmanueleMassetti,CatherinePattillo,JoeProcopio,HugoRojas-Romagosa,AndreaRichter,MarzieTaheri,AlexanderTieman,KalinTintchev,SylkevonThadden-Kostopoulos,FangYangandseminarparticipantssattheIMFfortheirvaluablecomments.TheanalysisonconflictintensitybenefitedfromexpertiseonhighfrequencydataandinsightsfromJiaxiongYao.WearealsoverygratefulforexcellentsupportbyGeraldineCruz. Contents 1.Introduction3 2.PathwaysThroughWhichClimateShocksAffectConflict4 3.DataandEmpiricalApproach5 4.EmpiricalResults9 5.SummaryandConclusions11 References12 FIGURES Figure1.NumberofConflictsbyRegion3 Figure2.ConflictIntensityinSelectCountries,2013–226 Figure3.Temperature,Precipitation,andConflictIntensity7 Figure4.Temperature,Precipitation,andConflictIntensityinSelectedCountries8 TABLES Table1.ImpactofWeatherShocksonConflict:BaselineResults10 Table2.ImpactofWeatherShocksonConflict:RobustnessChecks11 1.Introduction Climatechangeisassociatedwithincreasingtemperaturesanderraticprecipitation.Therelationshipbetweenclimatechangeandconflicthasgainedincreasingattentionfromacademicsandpolicymakersalikeinrecentyears.Forinstance,theCOP28declarationonclimate,relief,recovery,andpeaceissuedinDecember2023elevatedtheintersectionofclimatechange,conflict,fragility,andhumanitariancrisestothetoppolicylevelsattheUnitedNationstalks.Meanwhile,thenumberofconflictsaroundtheworldsincetheearly1990shasbeenrising,andmoresharplyoverthelastdecade(Figure1).Possiblepathwaysthroughwhichclimateshockscaninfluenceconflictincluderesourcescarcity,foodinsecurity,displacement,andeconomicshocks.Thispaperprovidesinsightsintotheeffectofweathershocks—measuredasfluctuationsintemperatureandprecipitation—onconflict,topromoteanunderstandingofthehumantollandtobetterinformtheappropriatepolicyresponses. Figure1.NumberofConflictsbyRegion 400 350 300 MENAPCCA Sub-SaharanAfricaAmericas Asia Europe 250 200 150 100 50 0 1989939720010509131721 Source:April2024RegionalEconomicOutlook:MiddleEastandCentralAsia CCA=CentralAsiaandCaucasus;MENAP=Middle EastandNorthAfrica,Afghanistan,andPakistan. Wefindthatweathershocks—inparticularhighertemperatures—significantlyworsenconflict.Whileweathershocksmaynottriggertheonsetofnewconflict(asconflictsderivefromacomplexrangeoffactors),theyexacerbatetheintensityofconflictwhereitalreadyexists.Estimationsindicatethatinahighemissionsscenario(RCP8.5),andallelseequal,by2060conflictdeathsasashareofthepopulationforamediancountryfacingconflictcouldincreaseby12.3percentduetorisingtemperatures.1Whiletheresultspresentedinthispaperfocusingonweathershockscannotprovideprecisepredictionsabouttheimpactthatclimatechangewillhaveonconflict,theydohighlighttherisksthatclimatechangeposesforpeaceandsecurity.Thesefindingsunderscoretheimportanceofintegratingclimateresiliencein