企业必须降低供应链风险（英文）

COMPANIESMUSTREDUCESUPPLYCHAINRISKS BenSimpfendorferSandeepAgarwalTusharNarsana CompaniesMustReduceSupplyChainRisks EXECUTIVESUMMARY Globalsupplychainsareefficientbutfragile.Geopoliticaltensions,naturaldisasters,andpandemicshaveallcausedmajordisruptionstoglobalsupplychainsoverthepastfiveyears. Chinaremainsintegraltoglobalsupplychains.GiventhesizeofChina’sdomesticmarketandthefactthereisnosimplesubstituteforthecountry’sexportsector,itisdifficultforforeigncompaniestofullydecouplefromChina. However,globalcompaniesareadoptingarangeofstrategiestoreducetheirexposuretoChina.Thesestrategiesinclude“China+1”orreshoringstrategicproductsandparts,especiallyinsensitivesectors. Foreigncompaniesneedtounderstandtheircurrentriskexposure.TheyalsoneedtoprepareaPlanB,particularlyintheeventgeopoliticaltensionsworsen. Inthispaperweidentifyaseriesofno-regretmovescompaniescantaketode-risksupplychains.Theseinclude: •Understandyourgeopoliticalriskexposure •Decidewhichproductstorelocate •Choosewhichmarketstorelocateto •Ensureregularcheckingofnewsuppliers •Optimizeinventoryandcashflows ©OliverWyman2 DISRUPTIONSTOGLOBALSUPPLYCHAINSCOULDCONTINUE Politicsandpandemicshavereshapedglobalsupplychainsinrecentyears,showingthemtobeefficientbutfragile.Initially,US-Chinatradetensionsresultedinsignificanttariffhikes.Thepandemicandlockdownsthendisruptedsupplyandtransportnetworks.Finally,thewarinUkraineresultedinshortfallsoffoodandotherraw-materialproducts. Globalizationwasalreadyslowingoverthepastdecade.ExportsasashareofglobalGDPpeakedataround50%morethanadecadeago,fallingtoalowof45%duringthepastfiveyears(Exhibit1).Asglobalsupplychainstransformoverthecomingdecade,weareunlikelytoseethesharepertainingtoexportsreturntoprevioushighs. However,assupplychainswillnotchangeovernight,companiesremainatriskoffurtherdisruption.Themagnitudeofthisdisruptioncouldalsobemoresignificantshouldgeopoliticaltensionsworsenorotherunforseeneventsemerge. Exhibit1:GlobaltradeasashareofglobalGDP WTOentry fin ic dem pan ancialcrisis 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% China's Global Global 198019851990199520002005201020152020 Source:InternationalMonetaryFund,WorldTradeOrganization THREESTRATEGIESTOREDUCESUPPLYCHAINRISKS Weareseeingfirmsrespondingtothecurrentriskstoglobalsupplychainsbyundertakingthreeprincipalstrategies. China+1 Theglobalapparelsectorhasadopteda“China+1”strategyforoveradecade.Thestrategyoriginatedinresponsetorisingcostsandlaborshortages,aswellastoshortensupplychainsandtheirrespectiveresponsetimes.BangladeshandTurkey,forexample,havebeenabletocaptureagrowingshareofglobalclothingexports. However,awiderrangeofconsumerandcapitalgoodscompanies,particularlyAmericanfirms,haveadoptedasimilarpolicyinthepastfiveyears.Ratherthanreducingcosts,theirmainmotivehasbeentode-risktheirexposuretoChinaandthedisruptioncausedbytariffs,sanctions,orgeopolitics. TheChina+1strategyassumesthatbesidesChina,aforeigncompanywillalsosourceashareofitsproductsfromoneormoresuppliersfromothercountries,suchasVietnam,Mexico,orPoland.Therelativesharesdifferforeachcompany,buttheymaystillimplyamajorityofthecompany’sproductsoriginateinChina. InChinaforChina Chinaisavastmarketformanyproducts,oftenthelargestglobally.Intheautomobilesector,forexample,over26millioncarsaresoldinChinaannually,nearlytwicethatoftheUS.Forsuchkindsofproducts,foreigncompanieswillcontinuetomanufactureinChinaforsaletoChineseconsumers. The“InChinaforChina”strategyassumesfirmswillretainorevenexpandtheirlocalsupplybase.Doingsoensuresitisinsulatedfromglobaltradetensions,ismorealignedtonationalpolicies,andcanofferlocalizedproductstotargettheChinesemarket,allwhilestillbeingopportunisticallyavailableforexport. Reshoringstrategicproductsandparts Theevidenceforreshoringislesscompellingintheshorttermandmainlyfoundatacompany-specificlevel.However,governmentpolicies,rangingfromsubsidiestobans,areacceleratingthespeedatwhichthemanufactureofspecificpartsorproductsisreturningtohomemarkets,especiallyamongadvancedeconomies. Inthelongterm,however,investmentinautomationandothermanufacturingtechnologiesthatreducecostsandimproveefficiencieswillmakethecaseforreshoringmorecompelling.Moreover,asthelocalsupplybasedeepens,thelogicforbringingproductionhomewillcontinuetogrow. SUPPLYCHAINSWILLNOTTRANSFORMRAPIDLY Whileleadingcompaniesmaysuccessfullyde-risktheirsupplychains,wedonotexpectindustry-widechangetooccurrapidly.China’sscale,speed,andproductivitymakeithardtobeatasamanufacturinglocationforexports.Whilethemediaisfullofrelocationstories,thedatatellsadifferentstory. Sofar,mostproductionleavingChinahasendedupinVietnam,asExhibit2illustrates.Moreover,categoryshiftsarelimitedtomainlyapparel,consumerelectronics,andfurniture.Thesesectorsaretypicallyeasiertorelocatecomparedtomorecapital-intensivetypesofproduction,suchasmetalsfabricationorindustrialmachinery. Exhibit2:Percentagechangeinimportmarketsharesbetween2019and2022 FortheaggregateglobalimportsoftheUS,theUK,Japan,Germany,andAustralia ChinaVietnamIndiaIndonesiaMalaysiaMexicoThailand Clothing -5 1 1 0 0 0 0 Communicatio