2024年中期新股策略展望：上市退市两手抓，IPO质量再提升

上市退市两手抓，IPO质量再提升 2024年中期新股策略展望 IPO 1 0.33%/0.27% 2024 2024/5/312024A/B174.24/140.10 100% 5 412 20241-5A38271.85 20241-5 2 20241-55%~10%PE23.1820241-5 1 135.46% 3 20241-5 3 20241-52556.23% A1.55% 2024 2024 4 70~100500~1000 203530A/B 4300/29003700/24004100/290095% 120%150%120%5A20241.55%2B1.71% 5 请参阅附注免责声明1 请参阅附注免责声明2 请参阅附注免责声明3 2035 2024412 619524   2020~20224/30 11620222824%5311029 1 >0≥1.5 ≥6000 ≥1 ≥10 ≥50 >0 ≥6 ≥1.5 >0≥2 ≥1 ≥2 ≥15 ≥50 >0 ≥6 ≥2.5 116 2022 4/305/31 3910 2824.14% 100% ≥80 >0 ≥8 ≥100 >000 ≥10 2023 请参阅附注免责声明4 2020~20222024  4/30 74 8  2020~2022  12 16.22% 5 31 3 16 2 25.00% 5 31 0 1 2   ≥5000  ≥1 ≥6000   ≥10 ≥1   ≥15 ≥4   ≥50 ≥3   ≥50 ≥3 3 1 5% 6000 1 5% 8000 0 0 0 1 25.00% 2 8 3 19 16.22% 12 74 5/31 4/30 2 10% 2 10% 3 5 3 7 4 20% 3 4 25% 3 2023 请参阅附注免责声明5 2020~20222024    ST 3 1 *ST  A A+B 5 120 100  66 55 *ST A  4 + 1 + 3 + 1 + 1 + 4 1 + 1 + 5000 + 5000 请参阅附注免责声明6  30% ST 5000 ST 300015% 3 ST 20251120222024  3 30%   5 ST "ST" < 30% 5000 < 30% 3000 15% 3 30% 3 3000 15% 请参阅附注免责声明7 1-5 2024 0-2 0~3 600 4 2024 271.85 20248 5 2024 2024 IPO IPO 524 500 438 437 428 5 31 400 344 313 38 531 20 300 277 223227 203 IPO 2 10 200 154 124 97 105 100 38 0 0 2009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024 38 120241-5IPO 首发总募集资金（亿元） 首发募集资金均值（亿元，右轴） 7,00020 6,000 5869 5426 5,000 4856 4806 4,000 3565 3,000 2688 2301 2532 2,0001736 15761496 1378 1030 1,000 666 0 0 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 27220 2009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024 272 220241-5IPO 2024   1-5 62024 20241-5 ) 11 11 6 10 38 120.46 64.50 66.83 20.06 271.85 320241-5 0-2 （亿元）2023Q1为全面注册制过2023Q2全面注册制落地，首批注册制主板新股2023年9月起，一二级逆周期调节下新股上市节奏放（家） 700渡期，叠加春节假期因上市，同时有晶合集成、中芯集成等百亿新股缓，上市新股数量同比/环比均减少，募资总额同比下50 素，新股发行上市节奏 趋缓； 登陆A股，整体募资规模提升； 滑。 45 600 576.44 39 37 40 500 34476.37469.26 31 50305.36 33 35 30 400 381.94 24330.78 25 21 21 300 250.81 17 20 200 181.19 14 15 10 11 150.02 10 118.83 10069.20 84.6994.35 10 6 58.3659.00 5 27.05 35 8.61 0 0 主板募资规模 创业板募资规模 科创板募资规模 北交所募资规模 发行家数 PE 10.955.8611.142.017.15 24.4521.9833.7716.7523.18 1186025 2.453.055.95-3.48 21.16%47.92%53.02%-37.37% 20231-5 ) 37 34 27 36 134 485.36 456.96 618.23 66.97 1627.51 PE 13.12 27.85 34 2.60 16.18% 13.44 47.62 29 7.47 51.63% 22.90 102.14 27 12.14 56.79% 1.86 16.97 2 1.52 34.50% 12.15 42.43 92 6.91 39.67% WIND0500 请参阅附注免责声明8 100% 主板上市数量 创业板上市数量 科创板上市数量 531 2024 38 2019 25 120% 2024年至今新股上市数 主板破发率（右轴）创业板破发率（右轴）科创板破发率（右轴） 9% 20 20241-5 84.35%167.48%88.91% 量大幅减少，且发行估 值水平相对合理，首日鲜有破发，合计仅1家破发。 100% 80% 15 60% 20241-5 1 -6% 10 40% 5 20% 0 0% 42024 2024   1-51 72024 PE PE PE PE PE 2023 67 89.83 47.65% 13 19% 100 44.93 65.71% 20 20% 10 32.01 49.72% 55 29.66 97.57% 2 4% 4 24.46 91.78% 2023 Q1 9 103.81 80.13% 0 0% 13 53.41 28.94% 3 23% 2 35.35 29.70% 19 21.42 93.16% 1 5% 3 21.90 101.71% 2023 Q2 32 86.10 39.13% 7 22% 32 46.08 17.92% 14 44% 5 31.24 52.80% 15 37.17 67.59% 0 0% 1 32.13 61.99% 2023 Q3 21 72.32 35.56% 5 24% 43 45.89 87.38% 2 5% 3 31.08 57.94% 6 40.94 60.30% 1 17% 0 - - 2023 Q4 5 156.97 94.54% 1 20% 12 29.22 155.33% 1 8% 0 - - 15 28.07 148.02% 0 0% 0 - - 2024 6 33.77 88.91% 1 17% 8 21.33 171.41% 0 0% 3 23.74 156.98% 11 24.45 84.35% 0 0% 0 - - 20242024 12 12 7.95 39.55 69.92% 9.97% 01 0% 50% 03 - 23.44 - 198.62% 00 -0% 20 27.79 - 145.58%- 70 24.59 - 65.61% - 00 0%- 00 -- -- 20242024 34 11 49.0125.12 124.15%162.11% 00 0%0% 32 18.8321.90 141.23%175.87% 00 0%0% 00 -- -- 31 23.4826.32 89.09% 201.27% 00 0%0% 00 -- -- 2024 5 1 41.44 157.37% 0 0% 0 - - 0 - 1 15.65 179.77% 0 - - 0 - 0 - - Wind 请参阅附注免责声明9 / 0500 2024 20245%PE 20241 820241-5 = < = < = < 2023Q1 3 6 3.27% 2 11 4.70% 0 0 2023Q2 1 31 7.56% 2 30 4.18% 0 15 11.32% 2023Q3 0 21 7.30% 2 41 6.07% 0 6 9.69% 2023Q4 0 5 9.91% 0 12 12.32% 0 14 9.79% 2024Q1 0 4 8.88% 0 6 10.95% 0 10 7.91% 20244-5 0 2 9.81% 0 2 6.43% 0 1 9.84% 1-5 92024 PEPE PEPEPEPE PEPEPEPE 2023Q3 2023Q3 16 5 23.81% 72.6071.56 176.77 77.77 36.0849.71%32.99-9.74% 41 2 4.65% 45.7449.1030.0120.53 28.0892.23%23.14-11.92% 331.0832.9857.94%0--- 51 16.67% 42.8631.3228.57 - 25.0273.88%35.99-7.60% 0---0--- 2023Q4 2023Q4 41 20.00% 30.54121.48%64.55-13.23% 11 1 8.33% 28.39169.47%31.38-0.21% 0---0--- 14 0 0.00% 20.64109.70% -- 0---0--- 2024Q1 2024Q1 31 25.00% 31.3342.0533.28 - 32.2076.24%30.02-14.73% 60 0.00% 21.14 - 21.90 - 23.65169.93% -- 227.7931.98145.58%0--- 10 0 0.00% 24.26 - 26.32 - 22.9472.65% -- 0---0--- 20244-520244-5 20 0.00% 40.85159.74% -- 20 0.00% 24.08175.87% -- 115.6526.43179.77%0--- 10 0.00% 28.54201.27% -- 0---0--- Wind 0500 2023Q4/-1<-0.05% 请参阅附注免责声明10 入围A类账户数量入围B类账户数量入围C类账户数量询价账户数量 12000 10892 10000 102312047160617104951019140128 9955 950095179489 97439712 8919 8435 9188 87018787 8544 77957964 80118045 77557765 809782778084 767478687857 81468004 8000 7561 6543 721471897166 6791 66726496 6000 4000 2000 0 52024 5 7200 2024 8000 7000 6500 700