2024年6月全球经济展望报告

AWorldBankGroupFlagshipReport JUNE2024 GlobalEconomicProspects GlobalEconomicProspects JUNE2024 GlobalEconomicProspects ©2024InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433 Telephone:202-473-1000;Internet:www.worldbank.org Somerightsreserved123427262524 ThisworkisaproductofthestaffofTheWorldBankwithexternalcontributions.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsofTheWorldBank,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracy,completeness,orcurrencyofthedataincludedinthisworkanddoesnotassumeresponsibilityforanyerrors,omissions,ordiscrepanciesintheinformation, orliabilitywithrespecttotheuseoforfailuretousetheinformation,methods,processes,orconclusionssetforth.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,links/footnotesandotherinformationshowninthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartofTheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptance ofsuchboundaries.ThecitationofworksauthoredbyothersdoesnotmeantheWorldBankendorsestheviewsexpressedbythoseauthorsorthecontentoftheirworks. NothinghereinshallconstituteorbeconstruedorconsideredtobealimitationuponorwaiveroftheprivilegesandimmunitiesofTheWorldBank,allofwhicharespecificallyreserved. RightsandPermissions ThisworkisavailableundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGOlicense(CCBY3.0IGO)http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo.UndertheCreativeCommonsAttributionlicense,youarefreetocopy,distribute,transmit,andadaptthiswork,includingforcommercialpurposes,underthefollowingconditions: Attribution—Pleasecitetheworkasfollows:WorldBank.2024.GlobalEconomicProspects,June2024.Washington,DC:WorldBank.doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-2058-8.License:CreativeCommonsAttributionCCBY3.0IGO Translations—Ifyoucreateatranslationofthiswork,pleaseaddthefollowingdisclaimeralongwiththeattribution: ThistranslationwasnotcreatedbyTheWorldBankandshouldnotbeconsideredanofficialWorldBanktranslation.TheWorldBankshallnotbeliableforanycontentorerrorinthistranslation. Adaptations—Ifyoucreateanadaptationofthiswork,pleaseaddthefollowingdisclaimeralongwiththeattribution:ThisisanadaptationofanoriginalworkbyTheWorldBank.ViewsandopinionsexpressedintheadaptationarethesoleresponsibilityoftheauthororauthorsoftheadaptationandarenotendorsedbyTheWorldBank. Third-partycontent—TheWorldBankdoesnotnecessarilyowneachcomponentofthecontentcontainedwithinthework.TheWorldBankthereforedoesnotwarrantthattheuseofanythird-party-ownedindividualcomponentorpartcontainedintheworkwillnotinfringeontherightsofthosethirdparties.Theriskofclaimsresultingfromsuchinfringementrestssolelywithyou.Ifyouwishtoreuseacomponentofthework,itisyourresponsibilitytodeterminewhetherpermissionisneededforthatreuseandtoobtainpermissionfromthecopyrightowner.Examplesofcomponentscaninclude,butarenotlimitedto,tables,figures,orimages. AllqueriesonrightsandlicensesshouldbeaddressedtoWorldBankPublications,TheWorldBankGroup,1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433,USA;e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org. ISSN:1014-8906 ISBN(paper):978-1-4648-2058-8 ISBN(electronic):978-1-4648-2059-5DOI:10.1596/978-1-4648-2058-8 Coverdesign:BillPragluski(CriticalStages) LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2024910800. ThecutoffdateforthedatausedinthereportwasJune4,2024. SummaryofContents Acknowledgmentsxiii Forewordxv ExecutiveSummaryxvii Abbreviationsxix Chapter1 Chapter2 Chapter3 Chapter4 TheGlobalOutlook1 Box1.1Regionalperspectives:Outlookandrisks19 Box1.2Recentdevelopmentsandoutlookforlow-incomecountries25 RegionalOutlooks51 EastAsiaandPacific53 EuropeandCentralAsia61 LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean69 MiddleEastandNorthAfrica77 SouthAsia85 Sub-SaharanAfrica93 HarnessingtheBenefitsofPublicInvestment103 Box3.1Publicinvestmentdynamicsaroundadverseevents126 Box3.2Macroeconomicimpactsofpublicinvestment:Aliteraturereview129 FiscalChallengesinSmallStates:WeatheringStorms,RebuildingResilience147 StatisticalAppendix183 SelectedTopics190 v Contents Acknowledgmentsxiii Forewordxv ExecutiveSummaryxvii Abbreviationsxix Chapter1GlobalOutlook1 Summary3 Globalcontext9 Globaltrade9 Commoditymarkets10 Globalinflation11 Globalfinancialdevelopments12 Majoreconomies:Recentdevelopmentsandoutlook14 Advancedeconomies14 China15 Emergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies16 Recentdevelopments16 EMDEoutlook17 LICsoutlook24 Percapitaincomegrowth24 Globaloutlookandrisks30 Summaryofglobaloutlook30 Riskstotheoutlook31 Policychallenges37 Keyglobalchallenges37 EMDEmonetaryandfinancialpolicychallenges40 EMDEfiscalpolicychallenges41 EMDEstructuralpolicychallenges43 References47 Chapter2 RegionalOutlooks51 EastAsiaandPacific53 Recentdevelopments53 Outlook54 Risks56 EuropeandCentralAsia61 Recentdevelopments61 vii Chapter2 Outlook61 Risks64 LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean69 Recentdevelopments69 Outlook69 Risks72 MiddleEastandNorthAfrica77 Recentdevelopments77 Outlook78 Risks80 SouthAsia85 Recentdevelopments85 Outlook86 Risks88 Sub-SaharanAfrica93 Recentdevelopments93 Outlook94 Risks96 Refere