2023年净利润预期将下降；估值将得到具有吸引力的收益的支持。

Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) reported a decline in net profit for 2023, largely expected, with a valuation supported by an attractive yield. The company achieved 20% YoY unit cost reduction in 2H23, driven by accelerated volume growth. YAL declared a final dividend of A$0.325/share, which together with the interim dividend implies a full-year payout ratio of 50.5% and a yield of ~13% based on the current price. The stock is trading at <6x 2024E P/E under the new earnings forecast. The company's revenue dropped 26% YoY to A$7.8bn, with a 39% YoY decline in blended coal ASP. EBIT declined 52% to A$2.6bn due to operating de-leveraging. Finance expenses decreased 89% YoY to only A$53mn. Net profit dropped 49% YoY to A$1.82bn. In 2H23, revenue/net profit dropped 34%/54% YoY to A$3.8bn/A$846mn. As at end-2023, YAL had 110mt of proven and probable coal reserves, with a reserve life of 12 years.