中国经济评论：四月数据显示经济逐步复苏

CCBISECURITIES|RESEARCH ChinaEconomicsUpdate:MixedAprileconomicdatapointstogradualrecovery 中国经济评论:四月数据显示经济逐步复苏 Aprileconomicdatawasmixed,consistentwithagradualrecovery.Industrialproductionhasbenefitedfromsupportfordomesticdemandandimprovedexternaldemand,asstrongmanufacturinginvestmenthassustained.DespitesoftretailsalesgrowthinApril,weexpectspendingoncatering,travel,andentertainmenttocontinuetosupportaconsumptionrecovery. Policymeasuresexpectedtoremainsupportive.Theissuanceofspecialsovereignbondsprovidedfiscalsupportforinfrastructureinvestment.Furthermore,policyinitiativessuchaslarge-scaleequipmentupgradesandconsumergoodstrade-inswillaugmentinvestmentandconsumptiondemand.Weexpectcurrentaccommodativemonetarypoliciestoremaininplace. 四月份经济数据好坏参半，与经济缓慢复苏的预期相符。工业生产受益于内需支撑和外需改善，制造业投资依然强劲。尽管4月社零增长疲软，但我们预计餐饮、旅游和娱乐支出仍将支持消费持续复苏。 预计保增长政策持续。发行特别主权债券将为基础设施投资提供财政支持。此外，大规模装备升级、消费品以旧换新等政策举措也将有利于支撑投资和消费需求。我们继续预计宽松的货币政策立场将保持不变。 KevinXie (852)39118241 kevinxie@ccbintl.com LiCui (852)39118274 cuili@ccbintl.com HuitingYan (852)39118012 yanhuiting@ccbintl.com Industrialproductionbeatsexpectationsbutretailsalesandinvestmentdisappoint Industrialproduction(IP)growthpickedupto6.7%YoYinApril(previous:4.5%YoY;consensus:5.5%YoY).Furthermore,sequentialIPgrowthreboundedto1.0%MoMaftercontractinginMarch. TheIPreboundwasbroad-based(Fig1),withhi-techrelatedmanufacturingremainingthedriver.Outputincomputer&electronicsequipmentandautomanufacturingcontinuedwithstrong16.3%and15.6%YoYgrowth.Bothindustrieshavebeenkeybeneficiariesofmanufacturingupgradesandgreeninvestment. Retailsalesgrowthslowedto2.3%YoYinApril,belowtheconsensusexpectationofa3.7%YoYrise.Seasonallyadjustedsequentialgrowthalsoeasedtoaflatoutcome.Despitesloweroverallgrowthinconsumergoodsconsumption,spendinggrowthonfuelpickedup,drivenbyrisingenergypricesandtraveldemand.Spendingonelectricappliancesreboundedthankstotrade-inpolicies.Carsalesgrewamodest5.5%YoYfollowingacontraction.Cateringspendingslowedto4.4%YoY,stillaboveoverallretailsalesgrowth. Fixed-assetinvestment(FAI)growthslowedto3.6%YoYinAprilbyourestimate(Fig3),duetoalargerdragfromreal-estateinvestment.Despitesomemoderation,manufacturingandinfrastructureinvestmentremainssolid.Bycategory: Broadinfrastructureinvestmentgrowthwasarobust8.2%YoYinApril,despitesteppingdownfroma13-monthhighof11.7%YoYinMarch.Traditionalinfrastructureinvestmentslowedto5.1%YoY.However,investmentinChina’spowersectorremainsrobustat21%YoYinAprilamidthegreeninvestmentpush. Strongmanufacturinginvestmentof9.3%YoY.Stronggrowthunderscoresthethemeofindustrialupgrades,especiallyinkeysectors,suchastransportationequipment,electricalmachinery&equipment,andnonferrousmetals. Thecontractioninreal-estateinvestmentwidenedto10.5%YoYinAprilbyourestimate,thelargestyear-on-yearcontractionthisyear.Theyear-on-yearcontractioninfundingremainswideat21%YoYamidbroad-basedweakness. Volume-basedpropertyindicatorsimprovedacrosstheboardinAprilduetoalowbase,buttheoutlookremainssoft.Propertyunderconstructionrose35%YoYinApril,thefirstyear-on-yearriseinthepastfivemonthsthankstothelowbasein2023.Thecontractioninpropertystartsandpropertycompletionsnarrowedto12.3%YoYand15.4%YoYinAprilwhilepropertysalescontracted14.4%YoY.Aprilalsosawthedeclineintheaveragepriceofanewpropertyinthe70largestChinesecitiesaccelerateto0.6%MoM,withsimilardeclinesacrossalltiers. Ourview: ThemixedeconomicdatafromAprilreflectsanimbalanceintherecovery,namelyrobustindustrialperformancesbutonlygradualimprovementinconsumption.Afterabriefsequentialcontraction,IPrebounded,helpedbygovernmenteffortstofosternewgrowthdrivers.ImprovingexternaldemandforChinesemanufacturingproductsalsolentahand.TheconsumptionrecoveryremainssoftasChina’ssluggishpropertymarketcontinuestoweighonconsumersentiment.However,weexpectspendingoncatering,travel,andentertainmenttoremainsupportive. ThePolitburomeetingheldon30Aprilemphasizedtheneedtofront-loadsupportivepro-growthpoliciesgiventhechallengesfacingtheeconomy.Towardsthisend,afirstbatchofultra-longspecialsovereignbondswasissuedtoday(17May).Theavailabilityoffundingwillencouragepublicinvestmentandrelatedexpenditure.Additionaldetailsonnewpolicyinitiativessuchaslarge-scaleequipmentupgradesandconsumergoodstrade-inswillbeforthcomingoverthenextfewquarters,fuelinginvestmentandconsumptiondemand. Inourview,thePBoC’sfocusonmonetaryeasingwillensuresufficientliquiditytoacceleratebondissuance.Hence,wecontinuetoexpecta25bpcuttotheRRRin2Q24F.However,near-terminterestratecutsareunlikelygiventhestrongUSdollar. Fig1:Strongoutputgrowthinauto,computers&electronics,andchemicals IPgrowth(%YoY)Pharma Computer&ElectronicEquip SpecialEquipElectricMachineryGeneralEquip FoodChemicalMaterial TextileAutomobile FerrousMetalSmelting Fig2:Easingretailsalesgrowth %YoY100 70 40 10 (20) 06-20 09-20 12-20 03-21 06-21 09-21 12-21 03-22 06-22 09-22 12-22 03-23 06-23 09-23 12-23 03-24 (50) 01020 Mar-24Apr-24 TotalGoodsCateringOnline Source:NBS,CCBISSource:NBS,CEIC,CCBIS Fig3:Solidmanufacturingandinfrastructureinvestmentgrowth