如何理解本轮地产政策？对人民币汇率影响几何？

5 20 I2024 10CPI 20111290 V 7.207.40 7.10 4CPI 1-2 105 4 Z0017101 1..........................................................................................1 1.1....................................................................................1 1.2.................................................................................2 1.2.1...................................................................................................2 1.2.2...................................................................................................4 1.2.3...................................................................................................4 2.................................................................................................5 2.1-........................................................................5 2.2.............................................................................5 2.2.1............................................................................................5 2.2.2............................................................................................6 2.2.3........................................................................................7 2.2.4........................................................................................8 2.3........................................................................................9 2.3.1.........................................................................9 2.3.2......................................................................9 3.........................................................................................11 3.1........................................................................11 3.2..........................................................................................14 3.3................................................................15 .................................................................................................16 ........................................................................................................17 ……………………………………………………………………………….18 ................................................................................................................19 ............................................................................................................19 1.1.1 ..................................................................................................1 1.1.12024422426.1 1.1.2 .....................................................................2 2.1.1 ...............................................................................................5 2.2.1 ..........................................................5 2.2.2 ..............................................................5 2.2.3 ..........................................................6 2.2.4 ................................................................................6 2.2.5 % ..............................................................7 2.2.6 .....................................................................8 2.2.7 NDF USDCNH .........................................................................8 2.2.8 USDCNY 25Delta %..........................8 2.3.1 ...............................................9 2.3.2 .........................................................................9 2.3.3 .............................................10 2.3.4 .......................................................................10 3.3.1 2024.4.22-4.28 ................................15 1 .................................16 2 % ..................................................................17 3 ...................................................18 4 Shibor %............................................................................18 5 SOFR % .............................................................................18 6%.................................................................................19 7....................................................................................19 1. ( BIS 7.1011 7.1053 7.1020 7.1045 0.048% USDCNY7.2246 7.2377 7.2188 7.2242 -0.006% USDCNH7.2288 7.2446 7.2187 7.2302 0.019% 155.8629 156.5060 154.2630 154.2630 -1.026% 1.0772 1.0875 1.0795 1.0868 0.893% 1.2526 1.2700 1.2560 1.2700 1.390% 105.3254 105.2172 104.3109 104.4974 -0.786% CFETS100.10 —— —— 99.43 -0.669% 105.69 —— —— 105.06 -0.596% 94.65 —— —— 94.28 -0.391% 1.1 2024513517 51716:30 CFETSBISSDR 1.1.1 ) ( SDR iFinD ) V 7.10 7.207.40 1.1.12024513 517 USDCNHUSDCNY 1.1.2 7.30 Bloomberg 108.00 107.00 7.25 106.00 105.00 7.20 104.00 7.15 103.00 102.00 7.10 2024-01-182024-02-182024-03-182024-04-18 101.00 : iFinD 1.2 1.2.1 301 180 1 60% 2 301 2018-2019 340 160 2000 180 1200 2023 3.6% 2026 4CPI 4 “ ” “ ” 6 CPI 4CPI 1-2 CPI 105 4 4 4CPI 1-2 105 1.2.2 1.2.3 2. - 2.1 517 34 7.1045 2.1.1 1 2 346199539-6704 RefinitivB