全球能源展望报告2024（英文版）

IE E J utl o k Oo y,EnvironmentandEcon 0 o 2 4 2 my Energ gyays Complexityofachievingtheenertransitionundermultiplepathw IEEJOutlook2024 RejeanCASAUBON SeiyaENDORyouETOU HiroshiHASHIMOTOTakehiroIWATAKANSichaoKenjiKIMURA YoshikazuKOBAYASHI KenKOYAMA IchiroKUTANITomokoMATSUMOTOTetsuoMORIKAWASoichiMORIMOTOTaijuMORIMOTOTomokoMURAKAMIYutoNAKANOYasushiNINOMIYAJunichiOGASAWARAAtsuoSAGAWAToshiyukiSAKAMOTOYoshiakiSHIBATAShigeruSUEHIROYoshiakiTAKAHASHIKazukiYAMAMOTOYukariYAMASHITAAkiraYANAGISAWA Summary1 PartIEnergysupplyanddemandoutlook5 1.Frameworkassumptions7 2.Energydemand19 3.Energysupply49 4.AdvancedTechnologiesScenario81 5.Energy-relatedinvestments113 PartIIComplexityofachievingtheenergytransitionunder multiplepathways119 6.EnablingLNGandnaturalgastoplaytheirroles121 7.Growingimportanceofnegativeemissionstechnologies127 8.PathstowardsASEAN’senergytransition141 Annex157 Slides243 Figure1-1|Geographicalcoverage7 Figure1-2|Technologyintroductionassumptions[AdvancedTechnologiesScenario]9 Figure1-3|Worldeconomicgrowthassumption11 Figure1-4|Economicgrowthassumptioninselectedcountries/regions12 Figure1-5|Populationassumption13 Figure1-6|Brentcrudeoilprices14 Figure2-1|Globalprimaryenergyconsumption,realGDPandGDPenergyintensity[ReferenceScenario]19 Figure2-2|Primaryenergyconsumptioninselectedcountries/regions[ReferenceScenario]20 Figure2-3|Globalprimaryenergyconsumption[ReferenceScenario]21 Figure2-4|Primaryenergyconsumption22 Figure2-5|Dependenceonfossilfuelsin22 Figure2-6|Contributionstoglobalprimaryenergyconsumptiongrowth[Reference Scenario,2021-2050]23 Figure2-7|Electrificationratesonthesupplysideinselectedcountries/regions [ReferenceScenario]23 Figure2-8|Globaloilconsumptionanditsshareofprimaryenergyconsumption [ReferenceScenario]24 Figure2-9|Oilconsumptioninselectedcountries/regions[ReferenceScenario]24 Figure2-10|Globaloilconsumption[ReferenceScenario]24 Figure2-11|Japan’senergyself-sufficiencyrateandindigenousproductionofnon-fossil fuelsofJapan26 Figure2-12|EnergyefficiencyinJapan27 Figure2-13|PrimaryenergyconsumptioninJapan27 Figure2-14|PowergenerationmixinJapan28 Figure2-15|DependencyontheMiddleEastforJapan’scrudeoilimports29 Figure2-16|Globalnaturalgasconsumptionanditsshareofprimaryenergy consumption[ReferenceScenario]29 Figure2-17|Naturalgasconsumptioninselectedcountries/regions[ReferenceScenario]30 Figure2-18|Globalnaturalgasconsumption[ReferenceScenario]30 Figure2-19|Globalcoalconsumptionanditsshareofprimaryenergyconsumption [ReferenceScenario]31 Figure2-20|Coalconsumptioninselectedcountries/regions[ReferenceScenario]32 Figure2-21|Globalcoalconsumption[ReferenceScenario]32 Figure2-22|Non-fossilenergyconsumptionforpowergeneration[ReferenceScenario]33 Figure2-23|Non-fossilenergyconsumptionforheating[ReferenceScenario]33 Figure2-24|Asianprimaryenergyconsumption[ReferenceScenario]34 Figure2-25|ASEAN’sprimaryenergyconsumption[ReferenceScenario]34 Figure2-26|Asianprimaryenergyconsumption[ReferenceScenario]35 Figure2-27|Asianoilconsumption[ReferenceScenario,2021-2050]36 Figure2-28|Asiannaturalgasconsumption[ReferenceScenario,2021-2050]37 Figure2-29|RealGDPandfinalenergyconsumption[ReferenceScenario]39 Figure2-30|Globalfinalenergyconsumptionandcontributionbycountry/region [ReferenceScenario,2021-2050]40 Figure2-31|FinalenergyconsumptioninChina,India,MiddleEastandNorthAfrica andASEAN[ReferenceScenario]40 Figure2-32|FinalenergyconsumptionintheAdvancedEconomies,andtheEmerging MarketandDevelopingEconomies[ReferenceScenario]41 Figure2-33|Vehicleownership[ReferenceScenario]42 Figure2-34|Globalfinalenergyconsumption(byenergysource)[ReferenceScenario]43 Figure2-35|Energy-relatedCO2emissions[ReferenceScenario]46 Figure2-36|Energy-relatedCO2emissionsinselectedcountries/regions[ReferenceScenario]46 Figure2-37|Decompositionofchangeratesinenergy-relatedCO2emissionsinChina, IndiaandAfrica[ReferenceScenario]47 Figure3-1|Majorinterregionalcrudeoiltradeflows[2022]51 Figure3-2|Majorinterregionalcrudeoiltradeflows[ReferenceScenario,2050]51 Figure3-3|Majorinterregionalnaturalgastradeflows[2022]56 Figure3-4|Majorinterregionalnaturalgastradeflows[ReferenceScenario,2050]56 Figure3-5|Globalcoalproduction57 Figure3-6|Globalcoalproduction[ReferenceScenario]61 Figure3-7|Globalcoaltrade(importvolume)[ReferenceScenario]64 Figure3-8|Majorinterregionalcoaltradeflows[2022]64 Figure3-9|Majorinterregionalcoaltradeflows[ReferenceScenario,2050]65 Figure3-10|Biofuelconsumptionfortransportation[ReferenceScenario]66 Figure3-11|Globalelectricitygeneratedandfinalconsumptionofelectricity[Reference Scenario]67 Figure3-12|Electricitygeneratedinselectedcountries/regions[ReferenceScenario]68 Figure3-13|Globalpowergenerationmix[ReferenceScenario]69 Figure3-14|PowergenerationmixinAdvancedEconomiesandinEmergingMarket andDevelopingEconomies[ReferenceScenario]70 Figure3-15|Chinese,IndianandASEANpowergenerationmix[ReferenceScenario]71 Figure3-16|Globalnuclearpowergenerationcapacityandnumberofunit72 Figure3-17|Installednuclearpowergenerationcapacity[ReferenceScenario]74 Figure3